Fair value · Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) · updated 2026-08-29 · from 10-K FY2025
Five independent valuation methods run on Tesla’s own SEC filings. Five say overvalued. The methods land close together.
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings.
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Using normalized EBIT (3-year average) | $12 | -97% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $20 | -94% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-01-29 · accession 0001628280-26-003952
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-07-23).
Open this filing on sec.govGrowth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $24 | -93% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
Graham Number Medium weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $25 | -93% | Medium weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $36 | -90% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | |
P/B vs sector Medium weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | Medium weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. Negative EBITDA — ratio not meaningful | No estimate | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | |
0.76
Put/Call (OI)
call-heavy
0.69
Put/Call (volume)
37%
ATM IV ~30d
$400
Call wall
178k OI
$300
Put wall
137k OI
CBOE delayed data, nightly snapshot as of 2026-08-28 · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide unusual activity
Interpretation
PEG = P/E ÷ Annual EPS Growth Rate (%). Peter Lynch's growth-adjusted value metric.
EV/EBITDA is not meaningful: Negative EBITDA — ratio not meaningful
Interpretation
EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value ÷ EBITDA. Capital-structure neutral — preferred by professional investors.
Interpretation
P/S = Market Cap ÷ Revenue. Useful for growth/unprofitable companies. SaaS/high-growth norms higher.
Interpretation
P/B = Price ÷ Book Value per Share. Essential for banks, REITs, and asset-heavy companies.
not meaningful — book value too small for this method vs current price
Interpretation
√(22.5 × EPS × Book Value/Share) — Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value estimate.
-96.6% vs current price ($348.75)
TTM EBIT deviates 36% from 3-year average. Using normalized EBIT ($6774M) for stability.
🔴 Destroying value
Greenwald EPV assumes zero future growth — this is the floor value of the business as a going concern.
Two of the seven methods, each with its own assumptions you can change. The fair-value range at the top of the page blends all seven; the numbers below will differ from it by design.
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DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
