High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Fair Value Range
Bear Case (25th pct.)
$4.59
-66.4% vs price
Base Case (Median)
$6.80
-50.3% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
$11.96
-12.6% vs price
$4.59$6.80$11.96
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
Method Breakdown
Method
Est. Value
vs Price
Weight
PE Comparable
$6.80
-50.3%
Medium (25%)
Growth Trajectory DCF
$17.12
25.1%
Medium (20%)
Graham Number
$2.38
-82.6%
High (80%)
Interpretation
Based on 3 out of 8 methods, GCMG appears overvalued at the current price of $13.68. The base case fair value of $6.80 implies 50.3% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.
