High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Fair Value Range
Bear Case (25th pct.)
$10.71
-18.2% vs price
Base Case (Median)
$20.90
59.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
$22.66
73.0% vs price
$10.71$20.90$22.66
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
Method Breakdown
Method
Est. Value
vs Price
Weight
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
$0.52
-96.0%
High (40%)
EV/EBITDA
$24.42
86.4%
Medium (20%)
EV/FCF
$20.90
59.6%
Medium (20%)
Interpretation
Based on 3 out of 8 methods, HDL appears fairly valued at the current price of $13.10. The base case fair value of $20.90 implies 59.5% upside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.
