High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Fair Value Range
Bear Case (25th pct.)
$5.98
-63.3% vs price
Base Case (Median)
$11.14
-31.6% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
$16.29
0.1% vs price
$5.98$11.14$16.29
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
Method Breakdown
Method
Est. Value
vs Price
Weight
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
$21.45
31.7%
High (40%)
EV/FCF
$0.83
-94.9%
Medium (20%)
Interpretation
Based on 2 out of 8 methods, MGPI appears fairly valued at the current price of $16.28. The base case fair value of $11.14 implies 31.6% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.
