Fair value · National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) · updated 2026-08-28 · from 10-K FY2026
Two independent valuation methods run on National CineMedia’s own SEC filings. Two say undervalued. The spread is wide, so treat it as a rough guide.
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings.
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $4.21 | +68% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $6.14 | +145% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
10-K FY2026 · fiscal year ended 2026-01-01 · filed 2026-02-26 · accession 0001193125-26-076788
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2027 (filed 2026-08-11).
Open this filing on sec.govDCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. Negative or unavailable EPS | No estimate | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. No trajectory data available | No estimate | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. Requires positive EPS | No estimate | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Negative operating earnings | No estimate | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | |
PEG Ratio is not meaningful: Insufficient price/EPS data
Interpretation
PEG = P/E ÷ Annual EPS Growth Rate (%). Peter Lynch's growth-adjusted value metric.
Interpretation
EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value ÷ EBITDA. Capital-structure neutral — preferred by professional investors.
Interpretation
P/S = Market Cap ÷ Revenue. Useful for growth/unprofitable companies. SaaS/high-growth norms higher.
Less meaningful for Communication Services
Interpretation
P/B = Price ÷ Book Value per Share. Essential for banks, REITs, and asset-heavy companies.
Graham Number is not meaningful: Negative or zero EPS — Graham Number not meaningful
Interpretation
√(22.5 × EPS × Book Value/Share) — Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value estimate.
EPV not meaningful: Negative operating earnings
Greenwald EPV assumes zero future growth — this is the floor value of the business as a going concern.
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DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
