Novartis AG
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-13.5% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-2.8% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
10.3% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $166.36 | 10.9% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $145.83 | -2.8% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $182.32 | 21.5% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $59.19 | -60.5% | Medium (40%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $123.56 | -17.6% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $164.58 | 9.7% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $135.87 | -9.4% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, NVSEF appears fairly valued at the current price of $150.00. The base case fair value of $145.83 implies 2.8% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.