What is Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)'s fair-value range?

As of 2026-09-13, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) trades at $6.34 — Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 22:34 ET. That price implies P/E 4.3×, EPS growth 8.3%, EV/EBITDA 23.3×, FCF yield 1.9%. Whether those assumptions are reasonable is your call: every method on the page shows the number today's price implies for its key input — the P/E, the growth rate, the multiple — and you set your own, from a 1, 3, 5 or 10-year filed CAGR or a rate of your choosing. With EvidInvest's preset inputs the 2 methods land at $17–$20; presets are filed history and reference settings, not a recommendation. Not investment advice.

How is Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)'s fair value calculated?

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)'s fair value is computed with several independent methods — a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the Graham number, earnings power value (EPV), and valuation multiples (PE, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/B) benchmarked against its industry — using data from SEC filings.

What is Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)'s PE ratio versus its industry?

EvidInvest shows Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)'s current and historical PE ratio alongside its sector and industry averages, so you can see whether the stock trades at a premium or discount to peers. Full breakdown at https://evidinvest.com/valuation/ORC.

Fair value · Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) · updated 2026-09-13 · from 10-K FY2025

Orchid Island Capital trades at $6.34. That price implies a P/E of 4.3×, 8.3% yearly EPS growth for a decade, 23.3× EV/EBITDA and a 1.9% free-cash-flow yield.

Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 22:34 ET

Are those assumptions reasonable? Use ORC’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.

What the price implies

P/E: 4.3×
EPS growth: 8.3%
EV/EBITDA: 23.3×
FCF yield: 1.9%

Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 22:34 ET.

With preset inputs the methods land at $17 – $20 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)

Price $6.34

Bear $17Base $19Bull $20

Set your own assumptions ↓See how each method got its number Check another stock

How each method got its number

Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.

Method	Estimate	vs price	Weight	Why this method
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech.	$15	+138%	Low weight	Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech.
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer.	$22	+250%	Medium weight	Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer.
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price	Not meaningful for this company		High weight	Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions.
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price	Not meaningful for this company		Medium weight	A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate.
P/B vs sector Medium weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies	No estimate		Medium weight	Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software.
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price	Not meaningful for this company		Medium weight	Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it.
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price	Not meaningful for this company		Medium weight	20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing.
Earnings Power Value Low weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Not applicable for financial/REIT companies	No estimate		Low weight	Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth.

What this means

A range of $17 to $20 means the methods disagree by about 21%. They measure different things — cash the business earns today versus growth the market expects tomorrow — so treat the range as a rough guide, not a target.
The base case, $19, is the median of the 2 methods with data. It assumes Orchid Island Capital’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
The number moves when the filings move. The next 10-Q replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q2 FY2026) was filed 2026-07-24. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.

The filing behind these numbers

Orchid Island Capital, Inc.

Revenue: $414.0M
Diluted EPS: $1.24
Free cash flow: $120.4M; operating cash flow − capital expenditure
Diluted shares: 128.3M; weighted average

10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-20 · accession 0001437749-26-004889

Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-07-24).

Open this filing on sec.gov

Valuation tool: build your own ORC range

Fair Value Summary

Daily Price — ORC

$6.33 -10.7% (1Y)

Range implied by today’s price6 of 7 methods

$6.34 – $13

Price $6.34

Bear $6.34Base $6.34Bull $13

Range with preset inputs

$17 – $20

Price $6.34

Bear $17Base $19Bull $20

Every method that could be solved backwards opens on the assumption today’s price makes, so the top range sits on the price — that is arithmetic, not a view. Change any input and it becomes yours.

We don’t tell you what ORC is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has ORC’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.

Discounted cash flow

$6.34per share

0% above the $6.34 price

Your stage-1 FCF growth (8.8%) matches the 8.8% the price implies — your value lands on today’s price.

Your inputs — two-stage free-cash-flow model

Preset (revenue-driven DCF, WACC 4.26%): $162.16

Implied by today’s price

At $6.34 the market implies a stage-1 FCF growth of 8.8%. (two-stage FCF model solved for stage-1 growth at 4.26% WACC)

Implied discount rate (holding growth): 4.3% · the WACC that makes the same model print the price

This tab opens on that number, so the value above is today’s price restated. Move the slider to what you find reasonable: the growth matrix shows what ORC has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.

Your inputs

Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.

Stage-1 growth8.8%preset 60.0%

Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.

-20.0%90.0%

Stage-1 years5 yrs

How long stage-1 growth lasts.

1 yrs10 yrs

Stage-2 growth5.0%

Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.

-20.0%30.0%

Stage-2 years5 yrs

0 yrs10 yrs

Terminal growth2.5%

Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.

0.0%5.0%

Discount rate (WACC)4.26%

The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.

3.00%15.00%

Net debt ($M)Debt minus cash, from the balance sheet. Subtracted from enterprise value.

Starting FCF ($M)Latest free cash flow from the filing (operating cash flow minus capex).

Shares (M)Diluted shares, from the filing.

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

PV explicit $1,440M · PV terminal $8,949M · EV $10,389M · equity $811M

Year	Stage	FCF	Present value
1	Stage 1	$131M	$125M
2	Stage 1	$142M	$131M
3	Stage 1	$154M	$136M
4	Stage 1	$168M	$142M
5	Stage 1	$183M	$148M
6	Stage 2	$192M	$149M
7	Stage 2	$201M	$150M
8	Stage 2	$212M	$152M
9	Stage 2	$222M	$153M
10	Stage 2	$233M	$154M

Inputs from the filing

Free cash flow: $206.4M; sum of the last four quarters
EBIT: $464.8M; latest annual
Shares: 200.9M
Total debt: $10.2B
Cash: $665.9M
Net debt: $9.6B; debt − cash

10-K FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-20 · accession 0001437749-26-004889 · sec.gov

Prefer a blank slate with reverse DCF? Open the standalone DCF / reverse DCF for ORC

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Download the full ORC valuation report (PDF) — free

DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.

Orchid Island Capital trades at $6.34. That price implies a P/E of 4.3×, 8.3% yearly EPS growth for a decade, 23.3× EV/EBITDA and a 1.9% free-cash-flow yield.

How each method got its number

What this means

The filing behind these numbers

Valuation tool: build your own ORC range

Daily Price — ORC

Range implied by today’s price6 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

More on ORC

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Valuation tool: build your own ORC range

Daily Price — ORC

Range implied by today’s price6 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

More on ORC

Compare with peers

Explore