What is Oatly Group AB (OTLY)'s fair-value range?

EvidInvest reads Oatly Group AB (OTLY)'s market price back into the assumptions behind it — the implied P/E, growth rate and cash yield — using its latest filed financials, then lets you set your own. See the full DCF, Graham number, EPV and multiple-based methods at https://evidinvest.com/valuation/OTLY.

How is Oatly Group AB (OTLY)'s fair value calculated?

Oatly Group AB (OTLY)'s fair value is computed with several independent methods — a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the Graham number, earnings power value (EPV), and valuation multiples such as PE and EV/EBITDA — using data from SEC filings. P/B is optional for non-financial companies and included in the preset range for financial sectors.

Which filing are Oatly Group AB (OTLY)'s valuation inputs based on?

Inputs come from the FY2025 20-F filed 2026-03-13 (accession 0001843586-26-000004). Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1843586/000184358626000004/

Fair value · Oatly Group AB (OTLY) · updated 2026-10-29 · from 20-F FY2025

Oatly Group AB (OTLY): not enough filed data to read assumptions out of the price yet.

Name: Oatly Group AB (OTLY) valuation inputs and fair-value methods
Creator: EvidInvest
License: https://evidinvest.com/subscription-terms

These methods need positive earnings and cash flow from the company’s SEC filings. The detailed valuation tools below still work with whatever has been filed.

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Inputs come from the FY2025 20-F filed 2026-03-13 (accession 0001843586-26-000004); set your own on the sliders below. Research, not investment advice.

The filing behind these numbers

Oatly Group AB

Revenue: $862.5M
Diluted EPS: $-0.25
Free cash flow: $-36.1M; operating cash flow − capital expenditure
Diluted shares: 607.5M; weighted average

20-F FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-03-13 · accession 0001843586-26-000004

Open this filing on sec.gov

Valuation tool: build your own OTLY range

Fair Value Summary

Daily Price — OTLY

$8.56 -45.2% (1Y)

Your range0 of 7 methods

At least two methods need a usable value to draw a range with these inputs.

Range with preset inputs

No preset range for this company yet.

The two ranges are identical because every input sits on a preset.

We don’t tell you what OTLY is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has OTLY’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.

Discounted cash flow

N/A

Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow.

Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing

• Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow.

Implied by today’s price

Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow, so no growth rate reaches the price.

Not solvable from the price — Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow, so no growth rate reaches the price. Showing preset inputs.

This method has no key input to read out of the price. The others below do, and you set them yourself: the growth matrix shows what OTLY has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.

Your inputs

Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.

Stage-1 growth5.0%

Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.

-20.0%60.0%

Stage-1 years5 yrs

How long stage-1 growth lasts.

1 yrs10 yrs

Stage-2 growth2.5%

Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.

-20.0%30.0%

Stage-2 years5 yrs

0 yrs10 yrs

Terminal growth2.5%

Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.

0.0%5.0%

Discount rate (WACC)16.40%

The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.

3.00%24.60%

Net debt ($M)Debt minus cash, from the balance sheet. Subtracted from enterprise value.

Starting FCF ($M)Latest free cash flow from the filing (operating cash flow minus capex).

Shares (M)Diluted shares, from the filing.

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

PV explicit $-208M · PV terminal $-84M · EV $-292M · equity $-788M

Year	Stage	FCF	Present value
1	Stage 1	$-38M	$-32M
2	Stage 1	$-40M	$-29M
3	Stage 1	$-42M	$-26M
4	Stage 1	$-44M	$-24M
5	Stage 1	$-46M	$-22M
6	Stage 2	$-47M	$-19M
7	Stage 2	$-48M	$-17M
8	Stage 2	$-49M	$-15M
9	Stage 2	$-51M	$-13M
10	Stage 2	$-52M	$-11M

Inputs from the filing

Free cash flow: $-36.1M; latest full year
EBIT: $-67.7M; latest annual
Shares: 30.4M; ADS equivalent
Total debt: $560.2M
Cash: $64.3M
Net debt: $495.9M; debt − cash

20-F FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-03-13 · accession 0001843586-26-000004 · sec.gov

Prefer a blank slate with reverse DCF? Open the standalone DCF / reverse DCF for OTLY

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Oatly Group AB (OTLY): not enough filed data to read assumptions out of the price yet.

The filing behind these numbers

Valuation tool: build your own OTLY range

Daily Price — OTLY

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Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

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Valuation tool: build your own OTLY range

Daily Price — OTLY

Your range0 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

More on OTLY

Compare with peers

Explore