Fair value · ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD. (ACGL) · updated 2026-09-03 · from annual report FY2025
Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 13:43 ET
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use ACGL’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 13:43 ET.
With preset inputs the methods land at $151 – $292 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Graham Number High weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $142 | +43% | High weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $154 | +55% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $270 | +171% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $360 | +261% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
P/B vs sector High weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | High weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. Not applicable for financial companies | No estimate | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. Not applicable for financial companies | No estimate | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | |
Earnings Power Value Low weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Not applicable for financial/REIT companies | No estimate | Low weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | |
annual report FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-26 · accession 0000947484-26-000017
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 6-Ks through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-04).
Open this filing on sec.govEvery method that could be solved backwards opens on the assumption today’s price makes, so the top range sits on the price — that is arithmetic, not a view. Change any input and it becomes yours.
We don’t tell you what ACGL is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has ACGL’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.
Discounted cash flow
$359.86per share
261% above the $99.57 price
Your stage-1 FCF growth (20.7%) is above the -30.7% the price implies — your value lands 261% above the price.
Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing
Implied by today’s price
At $99.57 the market implies a stage-1 FCF growth of -30.7%. (two-stage FCF model solved for stage-1 growth at 6.04% WACC)
The price implies stage-1 FCF growth of -30.7%, outside the range this slider covers. Showing preset inputs.
Implied discount rate (holding growth): 33.0% · the WACC that makes the same model print the price
That is the assumption the market is making — not ours, and not a recommendation. Decide whether it is reasonable: the growth matrix shows what ACGL has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
| Year | Stage | FCF | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage 1 | $7,396M | $6,975M |
| 2 | Stage 1 | $8,928M | $7,940M |
| 3 | Stage 1 | $10,776M | $9,037M |
| 4 | Stage 1 | $13,006M | $10,287M |
| 5 | Stage 1 | $15,698M | $11,709M |
| 6 | Stage 2 | $17,111M | $12,035M |
| 7 | Stage 2 | $18,651M | $12,371M |
| 8 | Stage 2 | $20,330M | $12,717M |
| 9 | Stage 2 | $22,160M | $13,072M |
| 10 | Stage 2 | $24,154M | $13,437M |
Inputs from the filing
annual report FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-26 · accession 0000947484-26-000017 · sec.gov
Prefer a blank slate with reverse DCF? Open the standalone DCF / reverse DCF for ACGL
Download the full ACGL valuation report (PDF) — free
DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
1.06
Put/Call (OI)
put-heavy
0.61
Put/Call (volume)
17%
ATM IV ~30d
$115
Call wall
1k OI
$90
Put wall
2k OI
As of previous close (2026-09-02) · OPRA historical data · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide positioning