Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-104.2% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-77.0% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-60.9% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $-263.72 | -665.2% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $10.25 | -78.0% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $11.17 | -76.1% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $20.62 | -55.8% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $112.00 | 140.0% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $-6.01 | -112.9% | High (70%) |
Based on 6 out of 8 methods, ALK appears overvalued at the current price of $46.66. The base case fair value of $10.71 implies 77.0% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.