What is ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK)'s fair-value range?

EvidInvest reads ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK)'s market price back into the assumptions behind it — the implied P/E, growth rate and cash yield — using its latest filed financials, then lets you set your own. See the full DCF, Graham number, EPV and multiple-based methods at https://evidinvest.com/valuation/ALK.

How is ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK)'s fair value calculated?

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK)'s fair value is computed with several independent methods — a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the Graham number, earnings power value (EPV), and valuation multiples (PE, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/B) benchmarked against its industry — using data from SEC filings.

What is ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK)'s PE ratio versus its industry?

EvidInvest shows ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK)'s current and historical PE ratio alongside its sector and industry averages, so you can see whether the stock trades at a premium or discount to peers. Full breakdown at https://evidinvest.com/valuation/ALK.

Fair value · ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) · updated 2026-09-13 · from 10-K FY2025

ALASKA AIR GROUP trades at $40.75. That price implies 9.1× EV/EBITDA.

Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 07:26 ET

Are those assumptions reasonable? Use ALK’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.

What the price implies

EV/EBITDA: 9.1×

Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 07:26 ET.

Set your own assumptions ↓See how each method got its number Check another stock

The filing behind these numbers

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.

Revenue: $14.2B
Diluted EPS: $0.83
Free cash flow: $-339.0M; operating cash flow − capital expenditure
Diluted shares: 119.9M; weighted average

10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-12 · accession 0000766421-26-000010

Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-04).

Open this filing on sec.gov

Valuation tool: build your own ALK range

Fair Value Summary

Daily Price — ALK

$41.16 -35.0% (1Y)

Range implied by today’s price2 of 7 methods

$41 – $41

Price $40.75

Bear $41Base $41Bull $41

Range with preset inputs

$51 – $51

Price $40.75

Bear $51Base $51Bull $51

Every method that could be solved backwards opens on the assumption today’s price makes, so the top range sits on the price — that is arithmetic, not a view. Change any input and it becomes yours.

We don’t tell you what ALK is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has ALK’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.

Discounted cash flow

N/A

Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow.

Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing

• Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow.

Implied by today’s price

Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow, so no growth rate reaches the price.

Not solvable from the price — Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow, so no growth rate reaches the price. Showing preset inputs.

This method has no key input to read out of the price. The others below do, and you set them yourself: the growth matrix shows what ALK has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.

Your inputs

Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.

Stage-1 growth5.0%

Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.

-20.0%60.0%

Stage-1 years5 yrs

How long stage-1 growth lasts.

1 yrs10 yrs

Stage-2 growth2.5%

Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.

-20.0%30.0%

Stage-2 years5 yrs

0 yrs10 yrs

Terminal growth2.5%

Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.

0.0%5.0%

Discount rate (WACC)6.15%

The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.

3.00%15.00%

Net debt ($M)Debt minus cash, from the balance sheet. Subtracted from enterprise value.

Starting FCF ($M)Latest free cash flow from the filing (operating cash flow minus capex).

Shares (M)Diluted shares, from the filing.

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

PV explicit $-3,088M · PV terminal $-7,568M · EV $-10,656M · equity $-17,168M

Year	Stage	FCF	Present value
1	Stage 1	$-356M	$-335M
2	Stage 1	$-374M	$-332M
3	Stage 1	$-392M	$-328M
4	Stage 1	$-412M	$-325M
5	Stage 1	$-433M	$-321M
6	Stage 2	$-443M	$-310M
7	Stage 2	$-455M	$-299M
8	Stage 2	$-466M	$-289M
9	Stage 2	$-478M	$-279M
10	Stage 2	$-490M	$-270M

Inputs from the filing

Free cash flow: $-350.0M; sum of the last four quarters
EBIT: $303.0M; latest annual
Shares: 111.1M
Total debt: $7.1B
Cash: $627.0M
Net debt: $6.5B; debt − cash

10-K FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-12 · accession 0000766421-26-000010 · sec.gov

Prefer a blank slate with reverse DCF? Open the standalone DCF / reverse DCF for ALK

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Download the full ALK valuation report (PDF) — free

DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.

Options positioning

Full options view: walls, IV term structure, smile →

0.55

Put/Call (OI)

call-heavy

0.82

Put/Call (volume)

50%

ATM IV ~30d

$50

Call wall

15k OI

$35

Put wall

5k OI

As of previous close (2026-09-11) · OPRA historical data · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide positioning

ALASKA AIR GROUP trades at $40.75. That price implies 9.1× EV/EBITDA.

The filing behind these numbers

Valuation tool: build your own ALK range

Daily Price — ALK

Range implied by today’s price2 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

Options positioning

More on ALK

Compare with peers

Explore

Valuation tool: build your own ALK range

Daily Price — ALK

Range implied by today’s price2 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

Options positioning

More on ALK

Compare with peers

Explore