Fair value · Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) · updated 2026-08-28 · from 10-K FY2025
Seven independent valuation methods run on Alarm.com Holdings’s own SEC filings. Four say overvalued, two say undervalued, one says about fairly priced.
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings.
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $15 | -74% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $30 | -49% | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-19 · accession 0001459200-26-000005
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-06).
Open this filing on sec.govEarnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $41 | -29% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $44 | -23% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $58 | -0% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $69 | +19% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $76 | +32% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Interpretation
PEG = P/E ÷ Annual EPS Growth Rate (%). Peter Lynch's growth-adjusted value metric.
Interpretation
EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value ÷ EBITDA. Capital-structure neutral — preferred by professional investors.
Interpretation
P/S = Market Cap ÷ Revenue. Useful for growth/unprofitable companies. SaaS/high-growth norms higher.
Less meaningful for Technology
Interpretation
P/B = Price ÷ Book Value per Share. Essential for banks, REITs, and asset-heavy companies.
price 79.6% above the Graham number vs current price
Interpretation
√(22.5 × EPS × Book Value/Share) — Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value estimate.
-29.0% vs current price ($57.60)
✅ Competitive advantage likely
Greenwald EPV assumes zero future growth — this is the floor value of the business as a going concern.
Two of the seven methods, each with its own assumptions you can change. The fair-value range at the top of the page blends all seven; the numbers below will differ from it by design.
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DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
