Fair value · Baidu, Inc. (BAIDF) · updated 2026-10-22 · from annual report FY2025
Baidu trades at $11.42. That price implies a P/E of 54.4×, 10.0% yearly EPS growth for a decade and 14.7× EV/EBITDA.
Previous close (2026-04-02)
Statements filed in CNY, converted to USD at the 2025-12-31 period-end rate (7.0010 CNY per USD; ECB reference rates).
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use BAIDF’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- P/E
- 54.4×
- EPS growth
- 10.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.7×
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Previous close (2026-04-02).
With preset inputs the methods land at $6.37 – $7.69 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $5.48 | -52% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $7.25 | -36% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $8.12 | -29% | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. No trajectory data available | No estimate | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. Negative FCF — common for growth companies; ratio not meaningful | No estimate | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Negative operating earnings | No estimate | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | |
What this means
- The methods land within about 21% of each other, so $6.37 to $7.69 is a tight read on what the filings support.
- The base case, $7.25, is the median of the 3 methods with data. It assumes Baidu’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move: the next quarterly statement replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Baidu, Inc.- Revenue
- CNY 129.1B
- Diluted EPS
- CNY 1.47
- Free cash flow
- CNY -15.1B
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 2.74B
- weighted average
annual report FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-03-17 · accession 0001193125-26-109289
Open this filing on sec.govNeed BAIDF data in your own agent or pipeline?
The valuation data behind this page — DCF fair value, margin of safety, PE vs industry, analyst estimates — is also available programmatically through the EvidInvest MCP server & financial data API for Claude, Cursor, or any MCP client and HTTP pipeline.