Fair value · Youdao, Inc. (DAO) · updated 2026-10-23 · from 20-F FY2025
Youdao trades at $19.35. That price implies a P/E of 151×, 20.6% yearly EPS growth for a decade and 74.2× EV/EBITDA.
Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 19:57 ET
Statements filed in CNY, converted to USD at the 2025-12-31 period-end rate (7.0010 CNY per USD; ECB reference rates).
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use DAO’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- P/E
- 151×
- EPS growth
- 20.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 74.2×
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 19:57 ET.
With preset inputs the methods land at $2.33 – $2.95 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. Based on latest annual FCF (quarterly TTM unavailable) | $1.20 | -94% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $2.32 | -88% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $2.38 | -88% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
Earnings Power Value High weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $2.71 | -86% | High weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $3.03 | -84% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $4.25 | -78% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
P/B vs sector High weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | High weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Graham Number High weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. Requires positive book value per share | No estimate | High weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | |
What this means
- The methods land within about 27% of each other, so $2.33 to $2.95 is a tight read on what the filings support.
- The base case, $2.55, is the median of the 6 methods with data. It assumes Youdao’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move: the next quarterly statement replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Youdao, Inc.- Revenue
- CNY 5.9B
- Diluted EPS
- CNY 0.90
- Free cash flow
- CNY 29.6M
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 119.9M
- weighted average
20-F FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-04-15 · accession 0001193125-26-155933
Open this filing on sec.gov