Fair value · Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) · updated 2026-08-30 · from 10-K FY2025
Six independent valuation methods run on Merck & Co.’s own SEC filings. Six land below the current price.
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings.
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Graham Number Medium weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $24 | -84% | Medium weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $28 | -81% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-24 · accession 0000310158-26-000063
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-07).
Open this filing on sec.govGrowth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $28 | -81% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Using normalized EBIT (3-year average) | $39 | -74% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $46 | -69% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $111 | -25% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | |
P/B vs sector Medium weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | Medium weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
The two ranges are identical because every input is at the EvidInvest default. Move any slider and the top range becomes yours.
Seven methods, each with its own inputs. Every number below is recomputed from the filed figures and your assumptions; EvidInvest’s defaults are just the starting point.
Discounted cash flow
$-35.93per share
124% below the $148.35 price· outside the ±300% band, left out of the range
EvidInvest default inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Pick a filed CAGR or set your own.
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
| Year | Stage | FCF | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage 1 | $4,961M | $4,789M |
| 2 | Stage 1 | $5,496M | $5,122M |
| 3 | Stage 1 | $6,090M | $5,478M |
| 4 | Stage 1 | $6,748M | $5,860M |
| 5 | Stage 1 | $7,476M | $6,268M |
| 6 | Stage 2 | $8,344M | $6,752M |
| 7 | Stage 2 | $9,311M | $7,274M |
| 8 | Stage 2 | $10,392M | $7,837M |
| 9 | Stage 2 | $11,597M | $8,443M |
| 10 | Stage 2 | $12,942M | $9,096M |
Inputs from the filing
10-K FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-24 · accession 0000310158-26-000063 · sec.gov
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DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
0.71
Put/Call (OI)
call-heavy
0.35
Put/Call (volume)
27%
ATM IV ~30d
$165
Call wall
54k OI
$110
Put wall
24k OI
CBOE delayed data, nightly snapshot as of 2026-08-28 · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide unusual activity
