Fair value · Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) · updated 2026-08-28 · from 10-K FY2025
Five independent valuation methods run on Northwest Natural Holding’s own SEC filings. One says overvalued, one says undervalued, three say about fairly priced. The methods land close together.
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings.
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $31 | -37% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $45 | -9% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-27 · accession 0001733998-26-000012
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-05).
Open this filing on sec.govGraham Number Medium weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $49 | -2% | Medium weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $50 | +0% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $76 | +54% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | |
P/B vs sector Medium weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | Medium weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. Negative FCF — common for growth companies; ratio not meaningful | No estimate | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | |
Interpretation
PEG = P/E ÷ Annual EPS Growth Rate (%). Peter Lynch's growth-adjusted value metric.
Interpretation
EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value ÷ EBITDA. Capital-structure neutral — preferred by professional investors.
Interpretation
P/S = Market Cap ÷ Revenue. Useful for growth/unprofitable companies. SaaS/high-growth norms higher.
Interpretation
P/B = Price ÷ Book Value per Share. Essential for banks, REITs, and asset-heavy companies.
price 6.0% above the Graham number vs current price
Interpretation
√(22.5 × EPS × Book Value/Share) — Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value estimate.
0.2% vs current price ($49.56)
✅ Competitive advantage likely
Greenwald EPV assumes zero future growth — this is the floor value of the business as a going concern.
Two of the seven methods, each with its own assumptions you can change. The fair-value range at the top of the page blends all seven; the numbers below will differ from it by design.
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DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
