Fair value · Phillips 66 (PSX) · updated 2026-10-03 · from 10-K FY2025
Phillips 66 trades at $264.58. That price implies a P/E of 15.1×, 21.7% yearly EPS growth for a decade, 13.2× EV/EBITDA and a 5.0% free-cash-flow yield.
Previous close (2026-10-02)
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use PSX’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- P/E
- 15.1×
- EPS growth
- 21.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.2×
- FCF yield
- 5.0%
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
free cash flow ÷ enterprise value (19.8× EV/FCF)
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Previous close (2026-10-02).
With preset inputs the methods land at $178 – $241 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $151 | -43% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
Graham Number Medium weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $169 | -36% | Medium weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $187 | -29% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $206 | -22% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $216 | -18% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $267 | +1% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $403 | +52% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
P/B vs sector Medium weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Medium weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
What this means
- The methods differ by about 36%, from $178 to $241. That is normal: cash-flow methods and peer multiples see different things. Use the range, not a single number.
- The base case, $206, is the median of the 7 methods with data. It assumes Phillips 66’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move. The next 10-Q replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q2 FY2026) was filed 2026-08-05. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Phillips 66- Revenue
- $132.4B
- Diluted EPS
- $10.79
- Free cash flow
- $2.7B
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 408.1M
- weighted average
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-20 · accession 0001534701-26-000006
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-05).
Open this filing on sec.gov