Fair value · Tokyo Electron LTD (TOELY) · updated 2026-10-17 · from 20-F FY2026
Tokyo Electron trades at $173.35. That price implies a P/E of 39.9×, 11.5% yearly EPS growth for a decade, 33.3× EV/EBITDA and a 1.6% free-cash-flow yield.
Previous close (2026-05-07)
Statements filed in JPY, converted to USD at the 2026-03-31 period-end rate (159.50 JPY per USD; ECB reference rates).
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use TOELY’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- P/E
- 39.9×
- EPS growth
- 11.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 33.3×
- FCF yield
- 1.6%
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
free cash flow ÷ enterprise value (61.5× EV/FCF)
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Previous close (2026-05-07).
With preset inputs the methods land at $34 – $82 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $28 | -84% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $31 | -82% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $37 | -78% | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $54 | -69% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $58 | -66% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $106 | -39% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $114 | -35% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
What this means
- A range of $34 to $82 means the methods disagree by more than 2×. They measure different things — cash the business earns today versus growth the market expects tomorrow — so treat the range as a rough guide, not a target.
- The base case, $54, is the median of the 7 methods with data. It assumes Tokyo Electron’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move. The next 6-K replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q1 FY2027) was filed 2026-06-30. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Tokyo Electron LTD- Revenue
- JPY 2.59T
- Diluted EPS
- JPY 663.09
- Free cash flow
- JPY 350.7B
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 918.5M
- weighted average
20-F FY2026 · fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-03-31
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 6-Ks through Q1 FY2027 (filed 2026-06-30).
Open the 20-F list on sec.govCIK 1443276