Fair value · TWIN DISC INC (TWIN) · updated 2026-08-28 · from 10-K FY2025
Four independent valuation methods run on TWIN DISC’s own SEC filings. Two say overvalued, one says undervalued, one says about fairly priced. The spread is wide, so treat it as a rough guide.
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings.
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $1.10 | -95% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $13 | -42% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-06-30 · filed 2025-09-05 · accession 0001437749-25-028487
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q3 FY2026 (filed 2026-05-06).
Open this filing on sec.govGraham Number High weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $22 | -6% | High weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $36 | +52% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. No trajectory data available | No estimate | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector High weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | High weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Earnings Power Value High weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | |
PEG Ratio is not meaningful: EPS growth rate unavailable
Interpretation
PEG = P/E ÷ Annual EPS Growth Rate (%). Peter Lynch's growth-adjusted value metric.
Interpretation
EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value ÷ EBITDA. Capital-structure neutral — preferred by professional investors.
Interpretation
P/S = Market Cap ÷ Revenue. Useful for growth/unprofitable companies. SaaS/high-growth norms higher.
Meaningful metric for Industrials
Interpretation
P/B = Price ÷ Book Value per Share. Essential for banks, REITs, and asset-heavy companies.
Graham Number is not meaningful: Negative or zero EPS — Graham Number not meaningful
Interpretation
√(22.5 × EPS × Book Value/Share) — Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value estimate.
-168.1% vs current price ($23.36)
🔴 Destroying value
Greenwald EPV assumes zero future growth — this is the floor value of the business as a going concern.
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DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
