Fair value · Xiaomi Corporation (XIACY) · updated 2026-10-23 · from 20-F FY2025
Xiaomi trades at $17.95. That price implies a P/E of 20.2×, 21.7% yearly EPS growth for a decade and 18.0× EV/EBITDA.
Previous close (2026-03-31)
Statements filed in CNY, converted to USD at the 2025-12-31 period-end rate (7.0010 CNY per USD; ECB reference rates).
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use XIACY’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- P/E
- 20.2×
- EPS growth
- 21.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 18.0×
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Previous close (2026-03-31).
With preset inputs the methods land at $5.65 – $12 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $0.06 | -100% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $5.10 | -72% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $7.29 | -59% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $9.84 | -45% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $12 | -32% | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $23 | +29% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
What this means
- A range of $5.65 to $12 means the methods disagree by more than 2×. They measure different things — cash the business earns today versus growth the market expects tomorrow — so treat the range as a rough guide, not a target.
- The base case, $8.56, is the median of the 6 methods with data. It assumes Xiaomi’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move. The next 6-K replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q2 FY2026) was filed 2026-06-30. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Xiaomi Corporation- Revenue
- CNY 444.8B
- Diluted EPS
- CNY 7.60
- Free cash flow
- CNY 21.4B
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 5.34B
- weighted average
20-F FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2025-12-31
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 6-Ks through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-06-30).
Open the 20-F list on sec.gov