Coherent spent $1.10 billion on capex and made $80 million of operating cash. Twelve filed lines, before tonight's print and after Lumentum's.

Every figure below was read from Coherent's and Lumentum's own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession. Outlook figures are the companies' own, furnished on Form 8-K, and are labelled as company guidance. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no share prices, because none of them is filed, and nothing from earnings calls, which are not filings either. Shares, sums, ratios and implied changes are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

Coherent (COHR) reports its first quarter of fiscal 2027, the three months to September, after the New York close tonight, Wednesday 4 November. The date comes from the company's release of 14 October, not an SEC filing. We checked EDGAR at 04:30 UTC on 4 November: Coherent's newest 8-K is that of 31 August, and it has filed no results 8-K for the quarter.

Lumentum (LITE) was due tomorrow, by its release of 5 October. It has already reported. On 2 November it furnished its results (accession 0001628280-26-068655) and filed a merger agreement with Marvell Technology (0001193125-26-442758); on 3 November it filed its 10-Q (0001628280-26-069615). So Coherent's lines below are still open, and Lumentum's are read against what it has now filed.

Both companies make the lasers and transceivers that connect AI clusters, so most previews will start with revenue. We would start elsewhere. In the year to June, Coherent's operating activities produced $79.5 million of cash, and it spent $1,102.9 million on property, plant and equipment. On 2 March it sold $2 billion of shares to NVIDIA; the same day, NVIDIA paid Lumentum $2.0 billion for convertible preferred stock.

If you want a forecast, wrong page. Twelve lines already on file, six per company, each with its accession.

Coherent: six lines before tonight

1. The guide: $2.2–2.4 billion

From the fourth-quarter release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 12 August (accession 0001193125-26-346860):

Fourth-quarter revenue was $2,045.5 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 40.2%. (Ours: the range is 7.6% to 17.3% above the fourth quarter.)

Check: revenue against $2.2–2.4 billion, then the second-quarter range and whether the gross margin guide moves off 39.5–41.5%.

2. Datacenter & Communications is 79% of revenue

Since 1 July 2025 Coherent reports two segments. The release's Table 5 and the presentation in Exhibit 99.2 (0001193125-26-346860) give the quarterly series:

(Ours: Datacenter & Communications was 79.0% of fourth-quarter revenue, up 18.6% on the quarter and 58.6% on the year.) For the full year, the 10-K (accession 0000820318-26-000020) puts the segment at $5,274.6 million, up 40%, with segment profit of $1,330 million. It attributes the growth to AI datacenter demand, "driven primarily by transceivers". Industrial fell 10%, which the 10-K attributes to the divestitures of the aerospace and defense business and the Munich business. The filings do not split Datacenter from Communications.

Check: the Datacenter & Communications line against $1,615.0 million. It is the only filed view of the AI business.

3. Operating cash $79.5 million, capex $1,102.9 million

The 10-K cash-flow statement (0000820318-26-000020), fiscal 2026 against 2025:

(Ours: capex was 13.9 times operating cash flow, and operating cash less capex was −$1,023.4 million.) The 10-K gives the reason: the decrease was "primarily driven by a significant increase in inventory levels to support higher revenue growth". Another $371.8 million of capex additions sat unpaid in accounts payable at year-end, against $67.1 million a year earlier. Debt went the other way: total debt obligations were $3,222 million, against $3,687 million, with $664 million undrawn on the revolver.

Check: operating cash flow and capex for the quarter, side by side. The August release carried a condensed cash-flow statement as Table 4; look for the same table tonight.

4. $11.8 billion of purchase commitments, and an NVIDIA capacity agreement

From the 10-K (0000820318-26-000020): "As of June 30, 2026, total future purchase commitments were $3.4 billion in fiscal 2027 and $8.4 billion thereafter." (Ours: the $11.8 billion total is 1.66 times fiscal 2026 revenue of $7,118.2 million.)

Next to that sits the NVIDIA arrangement. The 10-K describes "a multi-billion-dollar purchase commitment with NVIDIA", in a non-exclusive multi-year agreement signed on 2 March, and a "multi-year capacity agreement that may require incremental investments in equipment, labor, and working capital to support future production volumes through 2030." It adds that the arrangement "may result in material future cash requirements and could affect revenue concentration, gross margin, and capital expenditures as volumes ramp."

Check: whether the release or the 10-Q updates the commitment total or names a capex figure for the year.

5. Two customers, 32% of revenue

The 10-K: "One major customer accounted for 20%, 10%, and 10% of consolidated revenue during fiscal 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively. A second major customer accounted for 12% of consolidated revenue during fiscal 2026." Both are "primarily attributable to our Datacenter & Communications segment". The customers are not named. (Ours: 20% + 12% = 32%.)

Inventory is the other side of the same bet. It rose to $2,581.0 million from $1,437.6 million, and work in progress nearly doubled, to $1,557.0 million from $824.4 million (0000820318-26-000020, Note 4). (Ours: up 79.5%.)

Check: the inventory line in the 10-Q balance sheet against $2,581.0 million.

6. Indium phosphide: "double internal InP output by year-end"

The 10-K's MD&A: "We are investing in manufacturing capacity for the Datacenter and Communications markets, including expanding our indium phosphide capacity in Sherman, Texas, to address our increased customer demand and industry-wide shortage." The business section places the 6-inch InP build "in the United States and Europe" and records a $50 million preliminary memorandum of terms under the CHIPS and Science Act for the Sherman expansion. The August presentation (Exhibit 99.2, 0001193125-26-346860) goes further: "On track to double internal InP output by year-end and more than double again by 2027".

Check: whether the presentation repeats the InP target.

One more Coherent filing sits in the background. The 8-K of 31 August (accession 0001193125-26-375462) records special performance stock unit awards with target values of $50 million for the chief executive, $15 million each for three other officers and $5 million for a fifth. The proxy (0001104659-26-114847) sets the annual meeting for 18 November.

Lumentum: six lines, already filed

First, the deal. On 1 November Lumentum agreed to become a wholly owned subsidiary of Marvell (0001193125-26-442758). Each Lumentum common share converts into 4.500 Marvell shares, a fixed ratio; Marvell's holders would own approximately 67% of the combined company and Lumentum's approximately 33% (Exhibit 99.1). The release expects a close "in the first half of calendar year 2028", subject to both shareholder votes and regulators. The outside date is 1 November 2027, extendable to 1 August 2028. The termination fees are $5.8 billion payable by Marvell, $2.9 billion payable by Lumentum and a $3.2 billion regulatory fee payable by Marvell. The release's implied value and premium rest on share prices, which we do not show. We found no Form S-4 on EDGAR yet.

7. The guide: $1.225–1.275 billion, then $1,262.6 million

Guide from the 8-K of 11 August (0001628280-26-055726); result from the 2 November release and the 10-Q; new guide from the release (0001628280-26-068655):

(Ours: the new range is 24.7% to 28.7% above the first quarter.)

Check: net revenue against $1.575–1.625 billion in the next release.

8. There is still no cloud segment

The 10-Q: "We operate in one reportable segment as a single, integrated enterprise", and it does not present disaggregation "by customer, markets, contracts" and so on. What is left is a product split: Components $754.2 million (59.7%) and Systems $508.4 million (40.3%). The release names "pump lasers and optical circuit switches (OCS)" as the leading contributors. All from 0001628280-26-069615 and 0001628280-26-068655.

Check: the Components and Systems lines. Neither is a filed AI number.

9. Operating cash $267.7 million, capex $229.8 million

The 10-Q (0001628280-26-069615), against $57.9 million and $76.2 million a year earlier. (Ours: capex was 85.8% of operating cash flow, leaving $37.9 million; for fiscal 2026 the 10-K's $451.3 million and $751.4 million give 60.1%.) Another $253.5 million of capex sat unpaid at the end of the quarter. Property, plant and equipment in Thailand rose to $609.6 million from $450.6 million in three months.

Inventories rose to $807.7 million from $691.6 million. (Ours: up 16.8%.)

Check: whether capex passes operating cash in the second quarter.

10. $2.95 billion of purchase obligations, and a $5 billion customer line

Purchase obligations were $2,948.9 million at 26 September, of which $2,199.1 million is due within a year (0001628280-26-069615). In June they were $2,354.4 million (10-K, 0001628280-26-057358). (Ours: up 25.3%.)

The demand side is thinner on paper. A 10-K risk-factor heading reads: "the majority of our customers do not have contractual purchase commitments." The release's CEO quote mentions a "second major NPO/CPO win, backed by purchase commitments exceeding $5 billion"; the phrase "purchase commitments" does not appear in the 10-Q.

Check: whether a filing puts that $5 billion in a table.

11. One end customer is 37% of the quarter

The 10-Q's concentration note (0001628280-26-069615): "two end customers individually accounted for 37% and 11% of our total net revenue", against 22% and 21% a year earlier. For fiscal 2026 the 10-K gave 26.6% and 15.0%. In receivables, three customers were 33.4%, 13.7% and 11.3% of the gross balance, against two at 30.4% and 10.7% in June. (Ours: 37% + 11% = 48%.) None is named.

Check: the end-customer split in the next 10-Q, or in the S-4.

12. Convertible notes: $1.32 billion of principal, $779.9 million of requests

The 10-K (0001628280-26-057358) records $1,124.9 million of principal equitized in fiscal 2026 and a "loss on debt extinguishment of $7,756.6 million". The release shows a fourth-quarter GAAP net loss of $7.2 billion, then first-quarter net income of $360.3 million.

The 10-Q takes principal to $1,317.5 million from $1,554.3 million, after $236.8 million of conversions. All the notes "remain convertible at the option of the holders during the second quarter of fiscal year 2027". Early conversion requests reached $779.9 million by 30 October, against $757.8 million by 14 August, and that principal "will be settled in cash". The quarter's cash flow carries $493.3 million of payments for conversions. (Ours: $1,272.2 million of cash plus $707.4 million of short-term investments is $1,979.6 million, 1.50 times the principal.) NVIDIA's $2.0 billion of Series A preferred, bought on 2 March, converts under the merger into Marvell common shares or, by election, Marvell Series B preferred.

Check: the debt table in the next 10-Q.

The proxy (0001308179-26-000420) sets Lumentum's annual meeting for 18 November.

Where the filings differ on laser capacity

Coherent's filings put indium phosphide at the centre of its capacity story. Lumentum's 10-K does not use the phrase; "indium" appears once, in a risk factor on Chinese export restrictions, and not at all in the 10-Q. The merger release does name it: Lumentum brings "advanced compound semiconductor manufacturing and process technologies, including indium phosphide (InP)" (0001193125-26-442758, Exhibit 99.1).

What to read first

Tonight, Coherent: Datacenter & Communications against $1,615.0 million, then revenue against $2.2–2.4 billion, then cash and capex. Its 10-Q follows later with what the release leaves out. Lumentum's next filed step is the Form S-4 and joint proxy.

For the background, our June posts on Coherent and Lumentum covered the AI-optics exposure as it was filed then; the Coherent post also covered the NVIDIA placement.

Run it yourself

Open Coherent's 10-K and Lumentum's 10-Q side by side and search each for "10%" and "purchase". That is lines 4, 5, 10 and 11, and it takes five minutes. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you already wrote — a 79% Datacenter & Communications share, $11.8 billion of commitments, a 37% end customer, $1.32 billion of convertible principal — and tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, no subscription.

Revenue is what the release will lead with tonight. The cash-flow statement is where the build-out is paid for.

Sources. Coherent Corp. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026: accession 0000820318-26-000020 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 12 August 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q4 FY2026 release and Q1 FY2027 outlook) and Exhibit 99.2 (presentation): 0001193125-26-346860 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 31 August 2026: 0001193125-26-375462. Proxy statement (DEF 14A) of 9 October 2026: 0001104659-26-114847. Lumentum Holdings Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026: 0001628280-26-069615 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 2 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q1 FY2027 release and Q2 FY2027 outlook): 0001628280-26-068655 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 2 November 2026 (merger agreement with Marvell Technology, Inc.; Exhibit 99.1 joint release): 0001193125-26-442758 (sec.gov). Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 27 June 2026: 0001628280-26-057358 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 11 August 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q4 FY2026 release and Q1 FY2027 outlook): 0001628280-26-055726 (sec.gov). Proxy statement (DEF 14A) of 6 October 2026: 0001308179-26-000420. Coherent's report date comes from its release of 14 October, which is not an SEC filing. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, share price, price target or call remark appears on this page. Shares, sums, ratios and implied changes are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.