Evid Invest
← Back to Blog

Micron's extra week cut both ways. Twelve filed lines, read back against the print.

·EvidInvest Team
MUMicronmemoryDRAMNANDHBMearnings results8-K10-QSEC filings

Every figure below was read from Micron's fourth-quarter earnings release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 8-K today (accession 0000723125-26-000018), or from the earlier filings cited with their accessions. Guidance figures are Micron's own and are labelled as company guidance; they are not our estimate. We show no analyst estimates and no consensus, because they are not filed. The prepared remarks and the call are not SEC filings either, so nothing from them appears here. Ratios Micron does not print (per-week revenue, days of inventory, days sales outstanding, percentage gaps to guidance) are our arithmetic on filed values and are labelled where they appear. The 10-K is not filed yet; where only the 10-K can answer, we say so. Research, not investment advice.

Yesterday we listed twelve filed lines to read before Micron's print. The print is filed. This page goes back through the same twelve, in the same order, and answers each one from the exhibit, or says plainly that the exhibit cannot.

The fact most write-ups will miss tonight is the one we flagged first, and it now runs in both directions. Revenue of $54,229 million is up 30.8% on the quarter. The quarter was fourteen weeks long. Per week, it is up 21.5%. (Ours.) The new guide for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 is $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion, which reads as +13.4% on the quarter just reported. That quarter is thirteen weeks long. Per week, the guide is up 22.1%. (Ours.) The extra week inflated one step and now hides the next. A headline that calls this quarter an acceleration and the next one a slowdown has the shape exactly backwards.

If you want a forecast, still the wrong page.

1. The quarter was 14 weeks, and it ended on 3 September

Filed: the release opens with "fourth quarter and full year of fiscal 2026, which ended September 3, 2026," and the statement columns are headed September 3, 2026, May 28, 2026 and August 28, 2025. The release does not mention the week count anywhere; the words "14 weeks" and "53 weeks" appear zero times. Only the 10-Q (0000723125-26-000015) says it.

Ours: $54,229 million over fourteen weeks is $3,873.5 million a week, against $3,188.9 million a week for the thirteen-week third quarter. That is +21.5%, not +30.8%. Roughly a third of the headline step is calendar. The next quarter reverses it: $61.5 billion over thirteen weeks is $4,731 million a week, +22.1% on this quarter's weekly rate. Even the bottom of the guided range, $60.0 billion, is +19.2% per week, while its headline reads +10.6%.

2. The four guided figures, against what printed

Filed, company guidance from 0000723125-26-000013 against today's release:

FQ4-26Company guidance (GAAP)Reported (GAAP)Ours: gap
Revenue$50.0bn ± $1.0bn$54,229m$3,229m above the top; +8.5% vs midpoint
Gross marginApproximately 86%86.8%+0.8 points
Operating expensesApproximately $1.86bn$3,296m+77%
Diluted EPS$30.73 ± $1.00$32.87$1.14 above the top

Three of the four landed above the range. Operating expenses went the other way, and by more than any of them. The income statement shows R&D at $1,913 million against $1,316 million the quarter before, SG&A at $859 million against $407 million, and "other operating (income) expense, net" at $524 million against $15 million. The non-GAAP reconciliation names what sits inside that last line: patent license charges of $500 million, a line that was a dash in the third quarter. (Ours: excluding the $500 million, GAAP opex is still $2,796 million, 50% over the guide. Non-GAAP opex, which already excludes the charge, was $2,568 million against approximately $1.65 billion guided, +56%. The guide was set for a fourteen-week quarter, so the extra week explains none of that gap.) Who the licence is with, and for what, is not in the release. Waits for the 10-K: search the notes for "patent license".

3. The guidance record, fifth reading

The preview's table, with the fourth-quarter row filled in and the new guide added. Both sides of every row are filed.

QuarterGuided GAAP revenue (accession)Reported (accession)Guided GAAP EPS → reported
FQ4-25$10.7bn ± $300m (0000723125-25-000019)$11,315m (0000723125-25-000024)$2.29 ± 0.15 → $2.83
FQ1-26$12.50bn ± $300m (0000723125-25-000024)$13,643m (0000723125-25-000044)$3.56 ± 0.15 → $4.60
FQ2-26$18.70bn ± $400m (0000723125-25-000044)$23,860m (0000723125-26-000004)$8.19 ± 0.20 → $12.07
FQ3-26$33.5bn ± $750m (0000723125-26-000004)$41,456m (0000723125-26-000013)$18.90 ± 0.40 → $24.67
FQ4-26$50.0bn ± $1.0bn (0000723125-26-000013)$54,229m (0000723125-26-000018)$30.73 ± 1.00 → $32.87
FQ1-27$61.5bn ± $1.5bn (0000723125-26-000018)—$37.84 ± 1.00 → —

Ours: above the top of the range for the fifth quarter running. But the gap to the midpoint ran 5.7%, 9.1%, 27.6%, 23.7%, and now 8.5%, the smallest in four quarters. The gross-margin gap to the guided midpoint ran 3.7, 5.5, 7.4, 3.6 and now 0.8 points. Yesterday we called this guidance a floor-shaped object rather than a centre of gravity. On the fifth reading it has moved back toward being a centre of gravity: the print landed close to it, not far above it.

The new guide carries one detail worth writing down. Approximately 85.95% GAAP gross margin is 0.85 points below the 86.8% just reported. (Ours.) The FQ4 guide of approximately 86% had sat above the 84.6% FQ3 print. Operating expenses are guided at approximately $2.31 billion GAAP and $2.06 billion non-GAAP, below this quarter's $3,296 million and $2,568 million.

4. The revenue line is two numbers, and the release gives neither

Filed: nothing. The release has no revenue by technology. "DRAM" and "NAND" appear once each, in the boilerplate paragraph about the company. The sequential price-and-bits sentence we flagged, last quarter's "low-60% range increase in average selling prices and a low-single-digit percentage range increase in bit shipments", has no counterpart in the exhibit. The only product revenue statement is that "server LPDDR SOCAMM portfolio revenue more than doubled sequentially", with no figure.

Waits for the 10-K. Search MD&A for "average selling prices". One caution: a 10-K's MD&A compares years first, fiscal 2026 against fiscal 2025. Whether it also carries the fourth quarter against the third, as recent Micron 10-Ks have, is the first thing to check. If the sequential sentence is not there, that absence is itself the answer to what is filed.

5. The approximately $5 billion RPO, and the sentence above it

Filed: nothing. "Remaining performance obligations" appears zero times in the release. Waits for the 10-K. Search the revenue note for "remaining performance obligations" and read three things: the new balance, the share expected within twelve months, and whether the sentence "is not expected to be indicative of future revenue under these contracts" survives word for word. Line 6 below means the balance has every reason to have moved.

6. $22 billion expected. $12.9 billion now on the balance sheet.

This is the largest new fact in the release. Filed: the balance sheet carries a line called noncurrent customer contract liabilities: $12,895 million at 3 September, against $568 million at 28 May and $142 million at 28 August 2025. The full-year cash flow statement shows "Proceeds from customer contract liability deposits" of $12,747 million, against a dash the year before, and it shows them under financing activities, not operating.

Ours: the balance moved $12,327 million inside this one quarter. Against the 10-Q's approximately $18 billion expected in the form of cash deposits, the full-year deposit line is 71% of it. The classification matters for anyone reading cash flow: operating cash flow of $43,973 million for the quarter, and the company's adjusted free cash flow of $33,199 million, do not include the deposits. Total financing cash flow for the year was +$630 million only because $10,043 million of debt repayments and $2,387 million of buybacks, withholdings and dividends sat on the other side. (Ours.)

One reconciliation note. The release re-presents the 28 May column: the 10-Q showed other noncurrent liabilities of $7,086 million, while the release shows $7,172 million plus a separate $568 million customer contract liabilities line. Compare like with like, which means the release's own columns. The only filed sentence about the agreements is in the CEO's quote: they "provide added confidence in the durability of Micron's financial performance." Whether the $22 billion expectation moved waits for the 10-K.

7. Inventory moved. For the first time in a year.

Filed: inventories $10,372 million against $8,567 million at 28 May and $8,355 million a year earlier. Receivables $36,197 million against $31,025 million. Full-year cash flow: inventories a $2,017 million use of cash, receivables $25,206 million.

Ours: inventory dollars rose 21% in the quarter while cost of goods sold rose 12%. Days of inventory on cost of goods sold, on a 98-day quarter, went to 141 from 122. The line had fallen every year since FY2023's 180; this is the first move up. Days sales outstanding went the other way, to 65 from 68: the receivable grew more slowly than revenue. One quarter is not a trend, and the release does not say why. The 10-K's inventory note will split raw materials, work in process and finished goods. Search for "work in process" when it lands.

8. There is still no HBM revenue line, and now there is no HBM

Filed: "HBM" appears zero times in this exhibit. The third-quarter release (0000723125-26-000013) said HBM4 "is in high-volume shipments for our lead customer's platform". This one lists nine product highlights: DDR5 RDIMMs, SOCAMM, SSDs, LPDDR5X, LPDDR6. None of them is HBM. We read nothing into an omission beyond the fact of it. Any HBM revenue number quoted tonight did not come from a filing. Waits for the 10-K, which will still carry HBM inside the Cloud Memory unit, not as a revenue line.

9. CDBU crossed CMBU

Filed, business unit table:

UnitFQ4-26 revenueFQ3-26Gross marginOperating margin
Cloud Memory (CMBU)$16,283m$13,769m83% (83%)76% (78%)
Core Data Center (CDBU)$18,002m$11,524m90% (87%)85% (83%)
Mobile and Client (MCBU)$13,114m$11,521m90% (87%)88% (86%)
Automotive and Embedded (AEBU)$6,824m$4,634m84% (79%)79% (75%)

Prior quarter in brackets. The check we set yesterday resolved yes: the Core Data Center unit is now the largest, 10.6% above Cloud Memory. (Ours.) It grew 56% on the quarter; AEBU 47%; CMBU 18%; MCBU 14%. And the unit that carries HBM is the only one of the four whose operating margin fell, by two points, while its gross margin held flat. The other three gained two to four points of operating margin each. Customer concentration is not in the release. Waits for the 10-K: search the segment note for "10% of total revenue".

10. $27 billion of capex: on the number

Filed: "investments in capital expenditures, net" of $27,367 million for the year and $10,774 million for the quarter (gross PP&E spend $11,110 million; government incentive proceeds $327 million). The 10-Q said approximately $27 billion. Property, plant and equipment reached $63,310 million, against $56,426 million at 28 May.

The release contains no fiscal 2027 capex figure. Whatever is in the prepared remarks is not filed, and we do not quote it. Waits for the 10-K: search MD&A for "capital expenditures" and "2027", and check whether the Singapore and Tongluo dates from the preview are unchanged.

11. Interest expense: zero again

Filed: interest expense is a dash for the quarter, the second in a row, against $(124) million a year earlier. Interest income was $575 million against $215 million. Debt is $491 million current and $4,688 million long-term, $5,179 million in total, against $5,722 million at 28 May. Loss on debt prepayments was $9 million, against $325 million in the third quarter. Proceeds from issuance of debt for the year: a dash. Micron closed the year with $73.48 billion of "cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash", of which $30,019 million is now in long-term marketable investments, against $4,106 million in May.

Ours: $38,391 million of cash, equivalents and restricted cash, plus $5,070 million of short-term and $30,019 million of long-term investments, is $73,480 million, which reconciles to the company's figure. Part of that pile is the $12,747 million of deposits from line 6, which the balance sheet carries as a liability to customers.

12. No buyback in the fourth quarter either. A dividend with dates.

Filed: full-year repurchases under the programme were $650 million, the same figure the 10-Q gave for nine months, and treasury stock sits at $8,502 million in both the May and September columns. (Ours: zero bought in the fourth quarter, the second quiet quarter in a row.) Withholdings on employee equity awards were $1,127 million for the year against $762 million at nine months, about $365 million in the quarter (ours), again more than the programme. Diluted weighted shares were 1,147 million against 1,145 million. The FQ1-27 guide assumes approximately 1.15 billion.

One rarity: the release itself states the dividend's dates, so they are filed here and not only in a press wire. The board declared $0.15 per share on 30 September, "payable in cash on October 29, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on October 14, 2026."

The risk factors, and what else waits

The risk-factor diff in the preview compared two 10-Qs. The release has no risk factors; it points to "investors.micron.com/risk-factor", which is not a filing. Waits for the 10-K: compare its Item 1A against the four changes we listed yesterday, especially the paragraph on customers failing to meet purchase commitments, which now sits beside $12.9 billion of deposits.

On ownership there is nothing new to add. Form 13F for 30 September is not due until mid-November; the 30 June picture is in the preview.

Run it yourself

Start with the per-week numbers, because they take one division. /financials/MU carries the quarterly statements and /earnings/MU the filed quarterly series; divide each revenue figure by its week count before you compare any two. /filings/MU takes you to today's 8-K, and to the 10-K when it lands: open it, search for "remaining performance obligations", then "average selling prices", then "patent license". Those three searches close lines 2, 4 and 5.

/valuation/MU lets you run your own valuation on the filed numbers, and /holders/MU the last filed ownership. Then write down what you believe before the 10-K arrives. Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against it: $12.9 billion of deposits against $22 billion expected, an RPO balance with its own disclaimer, days of inventory at 141, the CMBU margin at 76%. It tells you which moved. If you would rather have the filings inside an agent, the same tools are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs begin at $10, and there is no subscription.

Yesterday we said the first thing to read would be the period-end date. It was 3 September, and it changes two quarters of headlines. The second thing, the sequential DRAM sentence, is still not filed.

Sources. Micron FQ4 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K furnished 30 September 2026: accession 0000723125-26-000018 (sec.gov). FQ3 2026 10-Q, quarter ended 28 May 2026: 0000723125-26-000015 (sec.gov). FQ3 2026 Exhibit 99.1: 0000723125-26-000013. Earlier guidance and results exhibits: 0000723125-26-000004, 0000723125-25-000044, 0000723125-25-000024, 0000723125-25-000019. FY2025 10-K: 0000723125-25-000028. No analyst estimate or consensus figure and nothing from the prepared remarks or the conference call appears on this page. Per-week revenue, days of inventory, days sales outstanding, percentage gaps to guidance and changes between periods are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.

Working with this data from an AI agent? The EvidInvest MCP server gives Claude, Cursor, and any MCP client access to 46 financial data, valuation, and SEC intelligence tools.

Fair Value Weekly

Get DCF breakdowns, fair value updates, and portfolio ideas for serious investors. No spam, no paywalled teasers.

EvidInvest is an independent research and information tool. Figures are calculated from public SEC filings and third-party market data and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. EvidInvest does not provide investment advice, brokerage, or financial services, and is not affiliated with any company it covers. Verify all figures against primary sources before making any decision.