A thesis you can keep watching as 10-Qs land — shown on AMD and NVDA

Figures below trace to AMD's Form 10-Q for the period ended June 27, 2026, filed August 5, 2026 (accession 0000002488-26-000123), and NVIDIA's Form 10-Q for the period ended April 26, 2026, filed May 20, 2026 (accession 0001045810-26-000052). No later NVIDIA 10-Q is in Aether — filings through 20 May 2026. Research, not investment advice.

Alert feeds tell you a 10-Q landed. They do not tell you what it did to the thesis you actually hold.

If you follow AMD ($AMD) or NVIDIA ($NVDA), you already know the pattern. The filing hits the wire. The headline is Data Center up. Your phone lights up. And the thing you wrote down last quarter — mix versus Gaming, whether a warrant tranche vested, whether three customers still dominate, whether China Hopper shipped a dollar — is still buried in Item 2 and Item 1A. Mix can diverge inside one print. Warrants can sit unvested while the 6 GW language keeps getting quoted. Concentration and export can break a risk line in the same 10-Q that supports the growth line.

This is not a price call, and it is not another AMD earnings recap. If you want a target, this is the wrong page. What follows is a thesis you can keep watching as 10-Qs and 8-Ks land — shown on two names whose latest filings already pull in two directions at once.

Your thesis, checked against every new filing

Thesis Monitor is built for that gap. The product line is the problem statement: Alert feeds tell you a 10-Q landed. We tell you what it does to your thesis.

You write the criteria. Every new 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K is judged against them: supported, at risk, or contradicted. Each verdict cites the exact filed passage. Email and push fire only when a criterion moves to at-risk or contradicted. Silence means the thesis held.

Unlocked by any AI credit pack — also included with EvidInvest's paid plans. Checks draw on AI credits: a $10 pack covers roughly a hundred filing checks. Built on Aether.

A public AMD example sits on the live monitor. The criteria below are worked examples scored against the 10-Qs — not that card, and not anyone's private book.

AMD: one filing, two economies

AMD's current print is the 10-Q filed August 5, 2026 (accession 0000002488-26-000123, period ended June 27, 2026). Item 2: "Data Center net revenue of $6.7 billion for the three months ended June 27, 2026 increased by 107%, compared to net revenue of $3.2 billion for the prior year period."

Same table: Data Center $6,718 million versus $3,240 million; Client $3,062 million versus $2,499 million; Gaming $779 million versus $1,122 million; Embedded implied $977 million; total net revenue $11,536 million versus $7,685 million. Data Center is 58.2% of the quarter (derived: 6,718 / 11,536). Six-month Data Center $12,493 million versus $6,914 million (+81%). Data Center operating income $2,103 million versus a prior-year operating loss of $155 million. Gross margin 54% versus 40% (Item 2, same 10-Q).

Gaming, same document: "Gaming net revenue of $779 million for the three months ended June 27, 2026 decreased by 31% compared to net revenue of $1.1 billion for the prior year period, primarily due to lower semi-custom revenue."

A criterion that Data Center dollars and mix keep rising versus Client and Gaming is supported. A criterion that Gaming holds up is contradicted by the same pages. One filing, two economies: the alert says AMD reported; the thesis needs to know which line moved.

Warrants. Item 2: in October 2025 and February 2026 AMD entered into multi-year agreements with OpenAI OpCo, LLC (OpenAI) and Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta), respectively, under which each customer intends to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD data center GPUs, with the first gigawatt of each deployment powered by AMD Instinct MI450 series products. AMD issued each customer a warrant to purchase up to 160 million shares at $0.01 per share, vesting in tranches tied to Instinct GPU purchase milestones and specified AMD stock-price and/or performance conditions. "As of June 27, 2026, no warrant tranches had vested or become exercisable." Item 1: OpenAI warrant exercisable through October 5, 2030; Meta warrant through February 23, 2031; none vested as of June 27, 2026. (Meta warrant 8-K filed February 24, 2026, accession 0000002488-26-000045. The latest 10-Q is both counterparties.) A criterion that either 160-million-share tranche has vested is not supported. A later 10-Q or 8-K that reports a vested tranche would flip "warrants remain unvested" to contradicted, or "deployments convert" to supported.

Instinct / MI450. The 10-Q's language is still agreement language: each customer intends to deploy, first gigawatt powered by MI450. Helios is described as a rack-scale platform of CPUs, GPUs and Networking. The 10-Q does not name Helios customers; OpenAI and Meta are 6 GW GPU-deployment counterparties with warrants, not labeled Helios customers.

Export. Item 2: "In April 2025, the U.S. government implemented a new license requirement for the export of certain semiconductor products to China … This restriction impacts our AMD Instinct™ MI308 products. … As a result of the restriction, we incurred approximately $440 million of net inventory and related charges in 2025." New charges in the next 10-Q would put an "export drag is behind AMD" criterion at risk or contradicted.

NVIDIA: the growth thesis can still be true while a risk criterion breaks

NVIDIA's latest 10-Q in Aether was filed May 20, 2026 for the period ended April 26, 2026 (accession 0001045810-26-000052). No later NVIDIA 10-Q — filings through 20 May 2026.

Item 2: "Data Center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92% from a year ago and up 21% sequentially, driven by the ramp of our Blackwell 300 products and demand for our InfiniBand, Spectrum-X Ethernet, and NVLink solutions. Hyperscaler revenue increased sequentially and remained at approximately 50% of Data Center revenue, while the remaining 50% came from a continued diversification of customers, including AI Clouds, industrial, enterprise, and sovereign customers. No shipments of Data Center Hopper products to China occurred during the quarter, compared with $4.6 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026."

The table: Data Center $75,246 million versus $62,314 million versus $39,112 million; Hyperscale $37,869 million; ACIE $37,377 million; total revenue $81,615 million. Data Center is 92.2% of total (derived: 75,246 / 81,615). Compute & Networking $74,550 million (+88% year over year); Graphics $7,065 million (+58%); C&N operating income $53,335 million. "Blackwell continued to account for the majority of our system shipments."

Same 10-Q: "For the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, three direct customers represented 21%, 17%, and 16% of total revenue, all of which was primarily attributable to the Compute & Networking segment."

Data Center dollars plus Hyperscale/ACIE near 50/50: supported. C&N versus Graphics: supported. Blackwell as the majority of system shipments: supported. China Hopper shipments continue: contradicted — zero versus $4.6 billion the prior quarter. No direct customer above 20% of total revenue: contradicted by the 21% name. The growth thesis can still be true while a risk criterion breaks.

Item 1A: "The availability of data centers, energy, and capital to support the buildout of NVIDIA AI infrastructure by our customers and partners is crucial, and any shortage of these or other necessary resources could impact our future revenue and financial performance."

What the monitor rescans next

On AMD, the next 10-Q or 8-K is judged against: Data Center dollars and mix versus Client and Gaming; whether either 160-million-share warrant tranche vests; Instinct / MI450 shipment language; MI308 China licenses and any new export charges.

On NVIDIA, the next 10-Q — whenever it lands; it is not in Aether yet — is judged against: Data Center dollars plus Hyperscale versus ACIE near 50/50; C&N versus Graphics; the top-three direct-customer percentages; Blackwell versus China Hopper dollars; and the energy, capital and export language in Item 1A.

You hear about it only if a line moves to at-risk or contradicted. You stop treating "a filing exists" as the event. The event is what the filing did to the thesis.

Sign in to open your monitor. Write one criterion the way you would brief an analyst. The same product lives at evidinvest.com/thesis-monitor. Unlocked by any AI credit pack — also included with EvidInvest's paid plans.

AMD: accession 0000002488-26-000123 (sec.gov). NVIDIA: accession 0001045810-26-000052 (sec.gov). Research, not investment advice.