Fair value · BHP Group Ltd (BHP) · updated 2026-09-19 · from 20-F FY2026
BHP Group trades at $86.27. We are not reading assumptions out of that price: our price is for one ADS, which represents 2 ordinary shares, but this company files its per-share figures per ordinary share — so these methods need a per-share restatement we do not yet publish.
Everything below is unaffected: the filed statements, the filing they came from, and BHP’s growth history are all as reported.
At least two methods need a usable value to draw a range with these inputs.
Range with preset inputs
No preset range for this company yet.
The two ranges are identical because every input sits on a preset.
We don’t tell you what BHP is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has BHP’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.
Discounted cash flow
N/A
Our price is for one ADS, which represents 2 ordinary shares, but this company files its per-share figures per ordinary share — so these methods need a per-share restatement we do not yet publish.
Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing
Implied by today’s price
Our price is for one ADS, which represents 2 ordinary shares, but this company files its per-share figures per ordinary share — so these methods need a per-share restatement we do not yet publish.
Not solvable from the price — Our price is for one ADS, which represents 2 ordinary shares, but this company files its per-share figures per ordinary share — so these methods need a per-share restatement we do not yet publish. Showing preset inputs.
This method has no key input to read out of the price. The others below do, and you set them yourself: the growth matrix shows what BHP has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.
Your inputs
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.
-20.0%60.0%
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
1 yrs10 yrs
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
-20.0%30.0%
0 yrs10 yrs
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
0.0%5.0%
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
