Fair value · Canon Inc. (CAJ) · updated 2026-10-28 · from 20-F FY2022
Canon trades at $21.63. That price implies a P/E of 11.6×, 12.6% yearly EPS growth for a decade, 5.2× EV/EBITDA and a 4.4% free-cash-flow yield.
Previous close (2023-01-03)
Statements filed in JPY, converted to USD at the 2022-12-31 period-end rate (131.88 JPY per USD; ECB reference rates).
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use CAJ’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- P/E
- 11.6×
- EPS growth
- 12.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.2×
- FCF yield
- 4.4%
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
free cash flow ÷ enterprise value (22.6× EV/FCF)
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Previous close (2023-01-03).
With preset inputs the methods land at $29 – $45 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
With EvidInvest's preset inputs, 7 valuation methods put Canon Inc. (CAJ)'s fair value between $29.36 and $44.72 per share (25th–75th percentile of the methods), against a price of $21.63 on . Inputs come from the FY2022 20-F filed ; set your own on the sliders below. Research, not investment advice.
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $19 | -12% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $29 | +34% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $30 | +37% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $31 | +44% | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $42 | +95% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $47 | +118% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $49 | +126% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
What this means
- The methods differ by about 52%, from $29 to $45. That is normal: cash-flow methods and peer multiples see different things. Use the range, not a single number.
- The base case, $31, is the median of the 7 methods with data. It assumes Canon’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move. The next 6-K replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q1 FY2023) was filed 2023-05-11. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Canon Inc.- Revenue
- JPY 4.03T
- Diluted EPS
- JPY 236.63
- Free cash flow
- JPY 74.1B
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 1.03B
- weighted average
20-F FY2022 · fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 · filed 2023-03-30
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 6-Ks through Q1 FY2023 (filed 2023-05-11).
Open the 20-F list on sec.govCIK 16988