Fair value · Chubb Ltd (CB) · updated 2026-09-07 · from annual report FY2025
Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 03:42 ET
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use CB’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 03:42 ET.
With preset inputs the methods land at $346 – $613 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $340 | -1% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
Graham Number High weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $348 | +2% | High weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $605 | +77% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $638 | +87% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
P/B vs sector High weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | High weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. Not applicable for financial companies | No estimate | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. Not applicable for financial companies | No estimate | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | |
Earnings Power Value Low weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Not applicable for financial/REIT companies | No estimate | Low weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | |
annual report FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-27 · accession 0000896159-26-000005
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 6-Ks through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-07-28).
Open this filing on sec.govEvery method that could be solved backwards opens on the assumption today’s price makes, so the top range sits on the price — that is arithmetic, not a view. Change any input and it becomes yours.
We don’t tell you what CB is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has CB’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.
Discounted cash flow
$638.36per share
87% above the $341.59 price
Your stage-1 FCF growth (20.2%) is above the -21.8% the price implies — your value lands 87% above the price.
Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing
Implied by today’s price
At $341.59 the market implies a stage-1 FCF growth of -21.8%. (two-stage FCF model solved for stage-1 growth at 6.15% WACC)
The price implies stage-1 FCF growth of -21.8%, outside the range this slider covers. Showing preset inputs.
Implied discount rate (holding growth): 22.8% · the WACC that makes the same model print the price
That is the assumption the market is making — not ours, and not a recommendation. Decide whether it is reasonable: the growth matrix shows what CB has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
| Year | Stage | FCF | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage 1 | $17,473M | $16,461M |
| 2 | Stage 1 | $21,003M | $18,640M |
| 3 | Stage 1 | $25,246M | $21,107M |
| 4 | Stage 1 | $30,345M | $23,901M |
| 5 | Stage 1 | $36,475M | $27,064M |
| 6 | Stage 2 | $39,867M | $27,867M |
| 7 | Stage 2 | $43,575M | $28,694M |
| 8 | Stage 2 | $47,627M | $29,546M |
| 9 | Stage 2 | $52,057M | $30,423M |
| 10 | Stage 2 | $56,898M | $31,325M |
Inputs from the filing
annual report FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-27 · accession 0000896159-26-000005 · sec.gov
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DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
0.80
Put/Call (OI)
call-heavy
0.69
Put/Call (volume)
18%
ATM IV ~30d
$360
Call wall
3k OI
$335
Put wall
2k OI
As of previous close (2026-09-04) · OPRA historical data · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide positioning