What is GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK)'s fair-value range?

As of 2026-10-03, GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) trades at $8.78 — Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 02:54 ET. That price implies P/E 13.3×, EPS growth 13.9%, EV/EBITDA 6.2×, FCF yield 2.3%. Whether those assumptions are reasonable is your call: every method on the page shows the number today's price implies for its key input — the P/E, the growth rate, the multiple — and you set your own, from a 1, 3, 5 or 10-year filed CAGR or a rate of your choosing. With EvidInvest's preset inputs the 5 methods land at $12–$24; presets are filed history and reference settings, not a recommendation. Not investment advice.

How is GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK)'s fair value calculated?

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK)'s fair value is computed with several independent methods — a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the Graham number, earnings power value (EPV), and valuation multiples (PE, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/B) benchmarked against its industry — using data from SEC filings.

What is GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK)'s PE ratio versus its industry?

EvidInvest shows GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK)'s current and historical PE ratio alongside its sector and industry averages, so you can see whether the stock trades at a premium or discount to peers. Full breakdown at https://evidinvest.com/valuation/GPK.

Fair value · GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) · updated 2026-10-03 · from 10-K FY2025

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING trades at $8.78. That price implies a P/E of 13.3×, 13.9% yearly EPS growth for a decade, 6.2× EV/EBITDA and a 2.3% free-cash-flow yield.

Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 02:54 ET

Are those assumptions reasonable? Use GPK’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.

What the price implies

P/E: 13.3×
EPS growth: 13.9%
EV/EBITDA: 6.2×
FCF yield: 2.3%

Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 02:54 ET.

With preset inputs the methods land at $12 – $24 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)

Price $8.78

Bear $12Base $13Bull $24

Set your own assumptions ↓See how each method got its number Check another stock

How each method got its number

Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.

Method	Estimate	vs price	Weight	Why this method
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate	$6.90	-21%	Medium weight	A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate.
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer.	$12	+42%	Medium weight	Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer.
Graham Number Medium weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech.	$13	+47%	Medium weight	Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech.
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth.	$23	+168%	Medium weight	Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth.
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it.	$26	+194%	Medium weight	Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it.
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price	Not meaningful for this company		High weight	Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions.
P/B vs sector Medium weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies	No estimate		Medium weight	Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software.
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price	Not meaningful for this company		Medium weight	20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing.

What this means

The methods differ by about 89%, from $12 to $24. That is normal: cash-flow methods and peer multiples see different things. Use the range, not a single number.
The base case, $13, is the median of the 5 methods with data. It assumes GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
The number moves when the filings move. The next 10-Q replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q2 FY2026) was filed 2026-08-04. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.

The filing behind these numbers

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO

Revenue: $8.6B
Diluted EPS: $1.48
Free cash flow: $-81.0M; operating cash flow − capital expenditure
Diluted shares: 299.8M; weighted average

10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-03-02 · accession 0001408075-26-000009

Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-04).

Open this filing on sec.gov

Valuation tool: build your own GPK range

Fair Value Summary

Daily Price — GPK

$8.96 -53.9% (1Y)

Range implied by today’s price6 of 7 methods

$8.78 – $8.78

Price $8.78

Bear $8.78Base $8.78Bull $8.78

Range with preset inputs

$12 – $24

Price $8.78

Bear $12Base $13Bull $24

Every method that could be solved backwards opens on the assumption today’s price makes, so the top range sits on the price — that is arithmetic, not a view. Change any input and it becomes yours.

We don’t tell you what GPK is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has GPK’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.

Discounted cash flow

N/A

Insufficient cash flow data

Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing

Implied by today’s price

Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow, so no growth rate reaches the price.

Not solvable from the price — Starting free cash flow is not positive; the model has nothing to grow, so no growth rate reaches the price. Showing preset inputs.

This method has no key input to read out of the price. The others below do, and you set them yourself: the growth matrix shows what GPK has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.

Your inputs

Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.

Stage-1 growth19.8%

Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.

-20.0%60.0%

Stage-1 years5 yrs

How long stage-1 growth lasts.

1 yrs10 yrs

Stage-2 growth7.3%

Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.

-20.0%30.0%

Stage-2 years5 yrs

0 yrs10 yrs

Terminal growth2.5%

Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.

0.0%5.0%

Discount rate (WACC)4.81%

The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.

3.00%15.00%

Net debt ($M)Debt minus cash, from the balance sheet. Subtracted from enterprise value.

Starting FCF ($M)Latest free cash flow from the filing (operating cash flow minus capex).

Shares (M)Diluted shares, from the filing.

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

PV explicit $-1,464M · PV terminal $-7,886M · EV $-9,350M · equity $-15,096M

Year	Stage	FCF	Present value
1	Stage 1	$-97M	$-93M
2	Stage 1	$-116M	$-106M
3	Stage 1	$-139M	$-121M
4	Stage 1	$-167M	$-138M
5	Stage 1	$-200M	$-158M
6	Stage 2	$-214M	$-162M
7	Stage 2	$-230M	$-166M
8	Stage 2	$-247M	$-170M
9	Stage 2	$-265M	$-174M
10	Stage 2	$-284M	$-178M

Inputs from the filing

Free cash flow: $189.0M; sum of the last four quarters
EBIT: $804.0M; latest annual
Shares: 296.6M
Total debt: $6.0B
Cash: $261.0M
Net debt: $5.7B; debt − cash

10-K FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-03-02 · accession 0001408075-26-000009 · sec.gov

Prefer a blank slate with reverse DCF? Open the standalone DCF / reverse DCF for GPK

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Download the full GPK valuation report (PDF) — free

DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING trades at $8.78. That price implies a P/E of 13.3×, 13.9% yearly EPS growth for a decade, 6.2× EV/EBITDA and a 2.3% free-cash-flow yield.

How each method got its number

What this means

The filing behind these numbers

Valuation tool: build your own GPK range

Daily Price — GPK

Range implied by today’s price6 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

More on GPK

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Valuation tool: build your own GPK range

Daily Price — GPK

Range implied by today’s price6 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

More on GPK

Compare with peers

Explore