Fair value · HONDA MOTOR CO LTD (HMC) · updated 2026-10-28 · from 20-F FY2026
HONDA MOTOR CO trades at $33.68. That price implies 8.9× EV/EBITDA.
Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 16:20 ET
Statements filed in JPY, converted to USD at the 2026-03-31 period-end rate (159.50 JPY per USD; ECB reference rates). Per-share figures are stated per ADS (3.0000000000000004 ordinary shares per ADS) to match the quoted price.
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use HMC’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.9×
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 16:20 ET.
With preset inputs the methods land at $52 – $52 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
With EvidInvest's preset inputs, 2 valuation methods put HONDA MOTOR CO LTD (HMC)'s fair value between $51.64 and $51.76 per share (25th–75th percentile of the methods), against a price of $33.68 on . Inputs come from the FY2026 20-F filed (accession 0001193125-26-274991); set your own on the sliders below. Research, not investment advice.
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $52 | +53% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $52 | +54% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. Negative or unavailable EPS | No estimate | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. No trajectory data available | No estimate | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector Medium weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Medium weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Graham Number Medium weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. Requires positive EPS | No estimate | Medium weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Negative operating earnings | No estimate | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | |
What this means
- A range of $52 to $52 means the methods disagree by about 0%. They measure different things — cash the business earns today versus growth the market expects tomorrow — so treat the range as a rough guide, not a target.
- The base case, $52, is the median of the 2 methods with data. It assumes HONDA MOTOR CO’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move. The next 6-K replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q1 FY2027) was filed 2026-08-05. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
HONDA MOTOR CO LTD- Revenue
- JPY 21.80T
- Diluted EPS
- JPY -106.06
- Free cash flow
- JPY 523.2B
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 4.00B
- weighted average
20-F FY2026 · fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-06-18 · accession 0001193125-26-274991
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 6-Ks through Q1 FY2027 (filed 2026-08-05).
Open this filing on sec.gov