Fair value · Software AG (SWDAF) · updated 2026-10-13 · from annual report FY2023
Software trades at $38.45. That price implies 18.8× EV/EBITDA.
Previous close (2024-01-03)
Statements filed in EUR, converted to USD at the 2023-12-31 period-end rate (0.90498 EUR per USD; ECB reference rates).
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use SWDAF’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- EV/EBITDA
- 18.8×
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Previous close (2024-01-03).
With preset inputs the methods land at $5.54 – $14 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $1.24 | -97% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $18 | -52% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. Negative or unavailable EPS | No estimate | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. No trajectory data available | No estimate | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. Requires positive EPS | No estimate | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. Negative FCF — common for growth companies; ratio not meaningful | No estimate | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | |
What this means
- A range of $5.54 to $14 means the methods disagree by more than 2×. They measure different things — cash the business earns today versus growth the market expects tomorrow — so treat the range as a rough guide, not a target.
- The base case, $9.84, is the median of the 2 methods with data. It assumes Software’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move. The next 6-K replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q4 FY2023) was filed 2023-12-31. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Software AG- Revenue
- EUR 1.0B
- Diluted EPS
- EUR -0.07
- Free cash flow
- EUR -11.0M
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 74.0M
- weighted average
annual report FY2023 · fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 · filed 2023-12-31
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 6-Ks through Q4 FY2023 (filed 2023-12-31).
Open the annual report list on sec.gov