Fair value · ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) · updated 2026-10-03 · from 20-F FY2025
ZTO Express (Cayman) trades at $19.50. We are not reading assumptions out of that price: financials are filed in CNY; our prices are in USD, so these methods need a conversion we do not yet publish.
Everything below is unaffected: the filed statements, the filing they came from, and ZTO’s growth history are all as reported.
At least two methods need a usable value to draw a range with these inputs.
Range with preset inputs
No preset range for this company yet.
The two ranges are identical because every input sits on a preset.
We don’t tell you what ZTO is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has ZTO’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.
Discounted cash flow
N/A
Financials are filed in CNY; our prices are in USD, so these methods need a conversion we do not yet publish.
Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing
Implied by today’s price
Financials are filed in CNY; our prices are in USD, so these methods need a conversion we do not yet publish.
Not solvable from the price — Financials are filed in CNY; our prices are in USD, so these methods need a conversion we do not yet publish. Showing preset inputs.
This method has no key input to read out of the price. The others below do, and you set them yourself: the growth matrix shows what ZTO has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.
Your inputs
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.
-20.0%60.0%
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
1 yrs10 yrs
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
-20.0%30.0%
0 yrs10 yrs
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
0.0%5.0%
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
