Six big banks report this week. Two of them filed a number to be judged against.

Every figure below was read from the six banks' second-quarter earnings exhibits (Form 8-K, 14 and 15 July 2026) and their second-quarter 10-Qs, each cited with its accession. Outlook figures are the companies' own and are labelled as company guidance. We show no analyst estimates and no consensus, because they are not filed, and nothing from the earnings calls, which are not filings either. Second-half run rates, percentages and changes the banks do not print are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo report the third quarter on Tuesday 13 October, Bank of America on Wednesday 14 October. Citi, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley follow; check their dates on their own investor pages, which are not filings. Most of the coverage will lead with earnings per share against a forecast nobody filed.

There is a filed yardstick, but only for two of the six. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo put a full-year net interest income number into their July filings. Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley did not: their exhibits carry results, not a full-year figure to measure the next quarter against. (We read each exhibit for one.) So for four of the six banks, "beat" or "miss" on Tuesday and Wednesday will mean against somebody's estimate, not against anything the bank said in writing.

If you want a call on bank stocks, wrong page. Here are the nine lines that are on file.

The baseline, second quarter 2026

Filed, second-quarter exhibits and 10-Qs:

Sources: JPMorgan 8-K 0001628280-26-048078 and 10-Q 0001628280-26-054343; Bank of America 8-K 0000070858-26-000353; Citi 8-K 0001104659-26-083383 and 10-Q 0000831001-26-000045; Wells Fargo 8-K 0000072971-26-000288; Goldman Sachs 8-K 0000886982-26-000294; Morgan Stanley 8-K 0000895421-26-000207. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley earn most of their revenue outside lending, so net interest income is not the line to watch for them. CET1 ratios are the 10-Q figures; the July 8-Ks had estimated 14.1% for JPMorgan and 14.8% for Morgan Stanley.

1. JPMorgan's guide needs a bigger second half

Filed, company guidance, restated in the 10-Q: "Management expects net interest income to be approximately $105.5 billion and net interest income excluding Markets to be approximately $96.5 billion, market dependent." Also: adjusted expense of approximately $107.5 billion, and a Card Services net charge-off rate of approximately 3.2%.

The 10-Q's income statement shows net interest income of $25,511 million in the second quarter and $50,877 million for the half year.

(Ours.) $105.5 billion less $50,877 million leaves about $54.6 billion for the second half, about $27.3 billion a quarter. That is roughly 7% above the second quarter. The 10-Q does not say whether the outlook is on the reported or the managed basis; the managed adjustment was $111 million in the second quarter, small next to a step of about $1.8 billion.

Excluding Markets the step is smaller. The presentation (0001628280-26-048086) shows $23.7 billion for the second quarter, $0.4 billion above the first. (Ours, on those rounded figures: about $47.0 billion for the half, so about $24.8 billion a quarter to reach $96.5 billion.)

2. Wells Fargo's guide needs a smaller one

Filed, company guidance (Exhibit 99.3): "Expect 2026 net interest income (NII) to be +/- $50 billion, unchanged from prior guidance", of which NII excluding Markets "+/- $48 billion" and Markets NII "+/- $2 billion"; noninterest expense "~$55.7 billion, unchanged from prior guidance". The 10-Q (0000072971-26-000302) puts first-half net interest income at $24,413 million.

(Ours.) The second half needs about $25.6 billion, about $12.8 billion a quarter, against $12,317 million in the second quarter: a step of about 4%. On expense, $13,661 million in the second quarter and $14,330 million in the first leave about $27.7 billion for the second half to land on $55.7 billion, close to the second quarter's run rate.

Tuesday's two tables either restate these numbers or move them. That is the first read, before any per-share figure.

3. JPMorgan's base quarter has $5.6 billion in it that will not repeat by design

Filed, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter net income was $21.2 billion, or $7.70 a share, and $16.9 billion, or $6.14, excluding significant items. Those items were "a $4.6 billion net gain related to Visa shares" and "$1.0 billion of gains on certain equity investments".

(Ours.) Any third-quarter line compared with the second quarter, rather than with the third quarter of 2025, starts from a base that includes about $5.6 billion of pre-tax gains JPMorgan itself labels significant. A quarter-on-quarter fall in reported net income on Tuesday would tell you nothing until you have taken them out.

4. Card charge-offs ran above the full-year guide

Filed, 10-Q: the Card Services net charge-off rate was 3.34% in the second quarter and 3.40% for the first half, against 3.49% for the first half of 2025. The full-year guide is approximately 3.2%.

(Ours.) If card balances stay roughly level, a year averaging about 3.2% after a 3.40% first half needs a second half near 3.0%, lower than any figure in the 10-Q's table. Rates are weighted by loan balances, so this is an approximation. Tuesday's exhibit will show the third-quarter rate and whether the guide was held.

5. Reserves barely moved

Filed, second quarter:

• JPMorgan: provision $2.5 billion, net charge-offs $2.4 billion, net addition to the allowance $149 million, "primarily in wholesale". Total allowance $31.5 billion; allowance-to-loans coverage 1.79%, against 1.85% a year earlier.
• Citi: net credit losses $2,404 million, net allowance build $102 million.
• Wells Fargo: net charge-offs $883 million, change in the allowance $31 million, "a higher allowance for credit card and auto loans driven by higher loan balances, largely offset by a lower allowance for commercial real estate loans".
• Bank of America: provision $1.4 billion, net charge-offs $1.4 billion, "relatively flat to 1Q26".
• Goldman Sachs: provision $102 million, which "primarily reflected impairments related to wholesale loans".

(Ours.) Across the four large lenders, provisions ran within a few hundred million dollars of charge-offs. Reserve building, in either direction, is the line that moves first when a bank changes its view of the economy, and the next line explains what view they hold.

6. The unemployment rate inside the reserves

Filed, JPMorgan 10-Q: the central case assumes a U.S. unemployment rate of 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 4.1% in the second and fourth quarters of 2027. At 31 December 2025 the same table had 4.6% for the second quarter of 2026 and 4.4% for the fourth. The allowance is a weighted average of five scenarios, and the weighted path has unemployment "peaking at 5.6% in the second quarter of 2027".

Filed, Citi 10-Q: the base forecast at the second quarter is 4.4% for the third quarter of 2026, 4.4% for the first and third quarters of 2027, and a 4.3% eight-quarter average. At the first quarter the eight-quarter average was 4.4%.

These are the assumptions the reserves are built on. The third-quarter 10-Qs will print new tables. The earnings exhibits usually do not, so this line may wait for the 10-Q, not Tuesday's 8-K.

7. Lending to nonbank financial firms, by the banks' own tables

This is the category behind the private-credit questions, and three of the 10-Qs size it.

Filed, Wells Fargo 10-Q, Table 12: loans to "financials except banks" were $208,838 million at 30 June, 20% of total loans, against $191,067 million (19%) at 31 December. Total commitments were $318,916 million. The 10-Q calls it "our largest industry category". The biggest piece, asset managers and funds at $73,530 million, "includes loans for subscription or capital calls and loans to securities firms." (Ours: +$17.8 billion, or 9.3%, in six months.)

Filed, JPMorgan 10-Q, wholesale credit exposure by industry: Asset Managers $176,789 million at 30 June, against $152,848 million at 31 December. (Ours: +15.7%.)

Filed, Bank of America 10-Q (0000070858-26-000394): asset managers and funds, utilised commercial exposure $158,972 million against $149,178 million; committed $244,880 million against $234,323 million. (Ours: utilised +6.6%.)

The risk language moved with the balances. Citi's 10-Q lists "systemic risk concerns related to exposures to leveraged finance and non-bank financial institutions, including private credit" among its forward-looking risks. Bank of America's names "a deterioration in private credit markets". Wells Fargo's 10-Q describes the loans as "generally secured", with "contractual re-margining of collateral" and loan amounts "limited to a percentage of the value of the underlying assets".

The third-quarter balances will be in the 10-Qs in early November, not in this week's 8-Ks. Anything said about them on Tuesday will be from a call, which is not a filing.

8. Capital ratios fell while the buybacks ran

Filed, Standardized CET1 ratios:

• Wells Fargo 10.3%, against 11.1% a year earlier. It repurchased 37.4 million shares for $3.0 billion in the quarter and "approximately $7 billion" in the first half.
• Citi 12.8%, against 13.5% a year earlier, with a payout ratio of 92% and "our $30 billion buyback plan" launched.
• Goldman Sachs 12.9%, against 14.3% at the end of 2025, after $4.00 billion of buybacks in the quarter. Its supplementary leverage ratio was 4.3%, against 5.2%.
• Bank of America 11.2%, after $6.0 billion of buybacks and $2.0 billion of dividends.
• JPMorgan 14.2% (14.1% estimated in the 8-K), after $6.2 billion of net buybacks and $4.0 billion of dividends; net payout over the last twelve months 73%.
• Morgan Stanley 14.9% (14.8% estimated in the 8-K), after $1.5 billion of buybacks, and a board reauthorisation of up to $20 billion "beginning in the third quarter of 2026".

(Ours.) Three of the six run noticeably thinner capital ratios than a year or half a year earlier, and all six kept returning capital. The third-quarter CET1 figure and the buyback line are in every earnings exhibit, so this is a Tuesday-and-Wednesday read, not a 10-Q one.

9. What to read first on the day

For each bank, three things from the 8-K, in this order:

1. The outlook slide or paragraph (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo): restated, raised or cut, against lines 1 and 2.
2. The allowance line: build or release, and the reason in the bank's words, against line 5.
3. CET1 and the buyback figure, against line 8.

Then wait for the 10-Qs for lines 6 and 7. That order keeps you reading the banks' numbers against the banks' own words, not against a forecast.

Run it yourself

Start with line 2, because it is one subtraction. Open /filings/WFC, take the $50 billion from the July presentation, subtract the first half, and divide by two. Do the same for JPMorgan at /filings/JPM. /financials/JPM and /earnings/JPM carry the quarterly statements, and the other four are at the same paths: /earnings/BAC, /earnings/C, /earnings/GS, /earnings/MS.

/valuation/JPM lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers. Then write your expectations down before Tuesday. Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against them: the $105.5 billion guide, the 3.34% card rate, Wells Fargo's 10.3%, the $208.8 billion of loans to nonbank financials. It tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

Six banks report. Two filed the number they should be measured against. The other four will be measured against numbers they never filed.

Sources. JPMorgan Chase Q2 2026 Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: 0001628280-26-048078 (sec.gov); presentation 8-K 0001628280-26-048086; Q2 Form 10-Q: 0001628280-26-054343 (sec.gov). Wells Fargo Q2 Form 8-K, Exhibits 99.1 and 99.3: 0000072971-26-000288; Q2 Form 10-Q: 0000072971-26-000302 (sec.gov). Bank of America Q2 Form 8-K: 0000070858-26-000353; Q2 Form 10-Q: 0000070858-26-000394. Citigroup Q2 Form 8-K: 0001104659-26-083383; Q2 Form 10-Q: 0000831001-26-000045. Goldman Sachs Q2 Form 8-K: 0000886982-26-000294; Q2 Form 10-Q: 0000886982-26-000297. Morgan Stanley Q2 Form 8-K: 0000895421-26-000207; Q2 Form 10-Q: 0000895421-26-000212. Report dates for JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America are the companies' own published schedules, which are not SEC filings. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, price target or call remark appears on this page. Second-half run rates, percentages and changes are arithmetic on the filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.