Tesla's energy lines made 17% of its third-quarter gross profit on 10% of revenue. The 10-Q moved the capex floor from $25 billion to $20 billion.

Every figure below was read from Tesla's own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession. The third-quarter numbers come from two documents: the Q3 2026 Update, a slide deck furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K on 21 October, and the Form 10-Q filed the next day. Where both give a figure we cite the 10-Q; where a figure appears only in a slide image, we say which slide. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no share prices, because none of them is filed, and nothing from the earnings call, which is not a filing either. Shares, sums and differences that Tesla does not print are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

Picture Tesla's income statement with the car taken out. In the third quarter, the energy lines brought in $2,881 million of revenue at a cost of $1,927 million, for segment gross profit of $954 million and a 33.1% margin, according to the 10-Q (0001628280-26-066775). That is 17% of the company's $5,494 million of gross profit, on 10% of its $28,046 million of revenue (Ours: 954 ÷ 5,494 = 17.4%; 2,881 ÷ 28,046 = 10.3%). One quarter earlier the same lines produced $640 million at a 20.4% margin, according to the second-quarter 10-Q (0001628280-26-049270).

Tesla $TSLA furnished its results on Form 8-K on 21 October (accession 0001628280-26-066738), the date its deliveries 8-K had given ("after market close on Wednesday, October 21, 2026"), and filed the 10-Q on 22 October. The 10-Q changed one sentence that matters more than any slide: the capex outlook.

Our July read-back ended on negative free cash flow. Here is the same company three months on, line by line.

1. Storage deployed: 13.7 GWh, and the plant to make more

The deliveries 8-K of 2 October (0001628280-26-064366) says Tesla "deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage products" in the quarter. The deck shows 13.5 GWh in the second quarter and 12.5 GWh a year earlier. The 10-Q gives the year to date: "we deployed 36.0 GWh of energy storage products through the third quarter" (Ours: 8.8 + 13.5 + 13.7 = 36.0).

The capacity table changed more than the deployments did. In July, Megapack in Texas was listed as "Commissioning" with no capacity. In October it reads 50 GWh, "Production", next to 40 GWh in California and 20 GWh in Shanghai. The deck's summary says Megafactory Texas "began production", and that Tesla shipped "the first Megapacks built with LFP cells from our factory in Nevada". Energy inventory rose with it: $4,448 million at 30 September, against $4,115 million at 30 June and $2,714 million at the end of 2025 (0001628280-26-066775, 0001628280-26-049270).

2. Energy revenue fell, energy margin rose, and the backlog grew

Sources: the Q3 10-Q segment table (0001628280-26-066775) for the first and last columns; the Q2 10-Q (0001628280-26-049270) for the middle one. The 10-Q gives the reasons for the 16% fall in revenue: "tariff refunds for certain Megapack customers, a lower average selling price per Megapack unit, a decrease in Powerwall deployments, and a decrease in solar retrofit cash deployments, partially offset by an increase in Megapack deployments". Cost fell 18%, partly from "favorable impacts from tariff refunds, and decreases in average cost per unit for Megapack".

The deck's demand language is qualitative: Tesla's "highest-ever order rate and backlog" for storage, which it calls "critical to data center uptime". The 10-Q puts a number on the contracted part. At 30 September, energy contracts longer than a year carried $10.73 billion of unsatisfied performance obligations, of which Tesla expects to recognise $4.80 billion in the next 12 months. At 30 June the figures were $10.05 billion and $4.56 billion (Ours: up $0.68 billion). Customer prepayments held as energy deferred revenue reached $3.30 billion, against $2.31 billion at 30 June.

One customer is named. The 10-Q's related-party note says Tesla recognised $221 million of revenue from SpaceX "for its purchase of our Megapack products" in the quarter, against $318 million in the second, and that SpaceX deferred revenue on those contracts was $648 million at 30 September.

3. Capex: $4.73 billion in the quarter, and a lower floor for the year

Capital expenditures were $4,732 million in the third quarter, against $5,789 million in the second and $2,248 million a year earlier, per the deck. The 10-Q's cash-flow statement gives nine months of $13,014 million, which matches the deck's three quarters (Ours: 2,493 + 5,789 + 4,732).

The outlook sentence changed. The second-quarter 10-Q said: "We currently expect our capital expenditures to be in excess of $25 billion in 2026, driven by our AI initiatives, including investments in compute infrastructure and data centers". The third-quarter 10-Q says: "We currently expect our capital expenditures to be in excess of $20 billion in 2026, driven by our SI initiatives, including investments in compute infrastructure and data centers". The floor moved down, and "AI" became "SI". At the new floor, the fourth quarter needs more than $6,986 million (Ours: 20,000 − 13,014); at the old one it needed more than $11,986 million. The deck itself carries no capex figure for the year.

4. AI, Robotaxi and compute, as filed

The deck renamed its compute line. In July the table read "AI Training Compute": Cortex 1 at more than 90 MW and Cortex 2 at more than 115 MW. In October it reads "SI Training Compute", for "Super Intelligence": Cortex 1 at more than 105 MW, Cortex 2 at more than 120 MW, with a footnote that these exclude "40 MW of other compute". The plan: "We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software."

The 10-Q's property note uses the new name too. "SI infrastructure" was $10,956 million at 30 September, against $6,816 million at 31 December; the second-quarter 10-Q called the same line "AI infrastructure" and carried it at $10,823 million at 30 June (Ours: up $133 million in the quarter).

On Robotaxi, the deck reports rides "using Cybercabs on September 3 in Austin" and "nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles" by quarter-end. Active FSD subscriptions were 1.74 million, against 1.48 million at 30 June. Research and development expense was $2,761 million, up 69% on a year earlier, which the 10-Q attributes primarily to "costs related to SI and other programs, such as Optimus, silicon development, battery technologies, and new vehicle programs". Income from operations was $718 million, against $1,624 million a year earlier.

5. Regulatory credits: $113 million, after a $475 million reversal

Automotive regulatory credits revenue was $113 million, against $146 million in the second quarter and $417 million a year earlier (Ours: down 23% and 73%). The 10-Q adds the line the deck does not: "During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026, we reversed $475 million of automotive regulatory credits revenue for contractual return of previously delivered credits." It repeats that "Recent governmental and regulatory actions have restricted certain regulatory credit programs tied to our products."

Nine-month credits revenue is $639 million, against $1,451 million in the same period of 2025. The contracted part rose: performance obligations on credit contracts longer than a year were $384 million at 30 September, of which $201 million is expected in the next 12 months, against $287 million at 30 June.

6. Deferred revenue: up $1.29 billion, and most of it is energy

The balance sheet shows deferred revenue of $4,661 million current and $4,126 million non-current at 30 September, against $3,427 million and $4,073 million at 30 June. (Ours: $8,787 million against $7,500 million, up $1,287 million.)

The 10-Q splits it. Deferred revenue related to FSD (Supervised), connectivity, free Supercharging and software updates "amounted to $4.08 billion" at 30 September, against $4.05 billion at 30 June. Energy customer prepayments went from $2.31 billion to $3.30 billion. (Ours: FSD-related up about $0.03 billion, energy up about $0.99 billion.) Of that FSD-related balance, Tesla expects to recognise $1.00 billion in the next 12 months.

7. Inventory and days of supply

Inventory was $14,092 million at 30 September, against $13,752 million at 30 June (Ours: up $340 million). Automotive inventory was $9,644 million and energy $4,448 million. Global vehicle inventory was 11 days of supply, against 15 at 30 June and 10 a year earlier, which Tesla computes by "dividing new vehicle ending inventory by the relevant quarter's deliveries and using 75 trading days".

8. Cash, operating cash flow and free cash flow

Sources: deck (0001628280-26-066738), with the second-quarter column also in the July deck (0001628280-26-049213). The 10-Q gives nine-month operating cash flow of $14,897 million, which matches the deck's three quarters (Ours: 3,937 + 4,697 + 6,263), and $17,853 million of cash plus $27,594 million of short-term investments at 30 September (Ours: 45,447). The deck: "The sequential increase of $1.9B was primarily a result of positive free cash flow of $1.5B." Nine-month free cash flow is $1,883 million (Ours: 14,897 − 13,014). Inside the nine months, accounts payable, accrued and other liabilities contributed $7,332 million.

9. Debt, and $30 billion of facilities nobody has drawn

On 29 September Tesla signed three credit agreements (8-K 0001628280-26-063820): a "$20.0 billion senior unsecured three-year delayed draw term loan facility", an "$8.0 billion senior unsecured five-year revolving facility" and a "$2.0 billion senior unsecured 364-day revolving credit facility". The 8-K says "Tesla does not currently plan to draw on the facilities in 2026." The undrawn term loan shrinks on a schedule: commitments fall "to $10.0 billion on the first anniversary of the closing date and to $5.0 billion 15 months after the closing date".

The 10-Q confirms none was drawn: "As of September 30, 2026, we had $30.00 billion of unused committed amounts under our senior unsecured credit facilities", against "$5.00 billion of unused committed credit amounts" at 30 June. The agreements are filed as Exhibits 10.1 to 10.3. Recourse debt was $2 million; non-recourse debt was $9,282 million of unpaid principal, of which $5,966 million is the China working capital facility. Debt and finance leases total $9,523 million (Ours: 1,387 current + 8,136 non-current).

10. Deliveries, and the SpaceX lines

The deliveries 8-K gives 464,391 produced and 486,532 delivered, against 451,758 and 480,126 in the second quarter (Ours: deliveries up 6,406, or 1.3%) and 497,099 delivered a year earlier. The deck says "battery availability continued to be the limiting factor in increasing auto volumes".

The proxy statement filed on 19 October (DEF 14A 0001104659-26-116700) states that "On February 2, 2026, xAI Holdings was acquired by and became a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX pursuant to a merger transaction", and that Tesla "completed its investment of approximately $2.00 billion" in SpaceX Class A shares on 12 March 2026. The proxy's agenda for the 3 December meeting lists three proposals (directors, the advisory pay vote and the auditor); none concerns SpaceX or xAI.

The 10-Q, filed three days later, adds a line under Item 5: "The Tesla board of directors has formed a special committee (the 'Special Committee') comprising disinterested directors to explore deepening Tesla's relationship with SpaceX, which could be through certain arrangements including without limitation a business combination". The SpaceX stake shows a $142 million loss in the quarter and an $863 million gain over nine months; the 10-Q says the shares "remain subject to customary sales restrictions in connection with the SpaceX initial public offering that expire in December 2026."

What the 10-Q answered, and what is still open

Six lines were waiting for this 10-Q. Energy performance obligations: $10.73 billion. FSD-related deferred revenue: $4.08 billion, nearly flat. Capex outlook: restated lower. "SI infrastructure": $10,956 million. The credit agreements: filed, $30.00 billion unused. Regulatory-credit obligations: $384 million. Still open: the special committee has no filed terms, and the 10-Q gives no timetable.

Run it yourself

/filings/TSLA lists the 8-Ks, the 10-Q and the proxy. /financials/TSLA holds the standardised statements, and /valuation/TSLA lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers. For a capex read on another AI spender this week, see our Meta read-back.

Then write down the lines you will hold Tesla to: a 33.1% energy margin, $10.73 billion of energy obligations, capex "in excess of $20 billion", 400 MW of training compute by year-end, $30 billion undrawn. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you wrote and tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

The deck shows where the gross profit came from. The 10-Q shows what is already signed, and what the company now expects to spend.

Sources. Tesla, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026: accession 0001628280-26-066775 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 21 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q3 2026 Update, text and slide images): 0001628280-26-066738 (sec.gov). Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026: 0001628280-26-049270 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 22 July 2026, Exhibit 99.1: 0001628280-26-049213 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 29 September 2026 (credit agreements): 0001628280-26-063820 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 2 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (production and deliveries): 0001628280-26-064366 (sec.gov). Definitive proxy statement of 19 October 2026: 0001104659-26-116700 (sec.gov). EDGAR was checked on 23 October 2026. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, share price, price target or call remark appears on this page. Sums, shares and differences are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.