Fair value · Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) · updated 2026-10-22 · from 20-F FY2026
Alibaba Group Holding trades at $101.60. That price implies a P/E of 15.9×, 13.4% yearly EPS growth for a decade and 9.2× EV/EBITDA.
Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 16:09 ET
Statements filed in CNY, converted to USD at the 2026-03-31 period-end rate (6.9004 CNY per USD; ECB reference rates). Per-share figures are stated per ADS (8 ordinary shares per ADS) to match the quoted price.
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use BABA’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
- P/E
- 15.9×
- EPS growth
- 13.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.2×
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 16:09 ET.
With preset inputs the methods land at $97 – $166 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Using normalized EBIT (3-year average) | $63 | -38% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $97 | -4% | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $111 | +9% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $166 | +64% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $191 | +88% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. Negative FCF — common for growth companies; ratio not meaningful | No estimate | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | |
What this means
- The methods differ by about 71%, from $97 to $166. That is normal: cash-flow methods and peer multiples see different things. Use the range, not a single number.
- The base case, $111, is the median of the 5 methods with data. It assumes Alibaba Group Holding’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move: the next quarterly statement replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd- Revenue
- CNY 1.02T
- Diluted EPS
- CNY 5.50
- Free cash flow
- CNY -50.7B
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 19.23B
- weighted average
20-F FY2026 · fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-20 · accession 0001193125-26-231755
Open this filing on sec.gov