Fair value · Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABAF) · updated 2026-08-30 · from annual report FY2026
Three independent valuation methods run on Alibaba Group Holding’s own SEC filings. One lands below the current price, two land above the current price. The spread is wide, so treat it as a rough guide.
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings.
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. Based on latest annual FCF (quarterly TTM unavailable) | $7.24 | -52% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $28 | +90% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
annual report FY2026 · fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-20 · accession 0001193125-26-231755
Open this filing on sec.govEarnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Using normalized EBIT (3-year average) | $57 | +284% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. Negative or unavailable EPS | No estimate | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. No trajectory data available | No estimate | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. Requires positive EPS | No estimate | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | |
The two ranges are identical because every input is at the EvidInvest default. Move any slider and the top range becomes yours.
Seven methods, each with its own inputs. Every number below is recomputed from the filed figures and your assumptions; EvidInvest’s defaults are just the starting point.
Discounted cash flow
$28.47per share
90% above the $14.95 price
EvidInvest default inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Pick a filed CAGR or set your own.
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
| Year | Stage | FCF | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage 1 | $80,024M | $74,607M |
| 2 | Stage 1 | $84,025M | $73,035M |
| 3 | Stage 1 | $88,226M | $71,496M |
| 4 | Stage 1 | $92,637M | $69,990M |
| 5 | Stage 1 | $97,269M | $68,515M |
| 6 | Stage 2 | $99,701M | $65,475M |
| 7 | Stage 2 | $102,194M | $62,569M |
| 8 | Stage 2 | $104,748M | $59,792M |
| 9 | Stage 2 | $107,367M | $57,139M |
| 10 | Stage 2 | $110,051M | $54,603M |
Inputs from the filing
annual report FY2026 · period ended 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-20 · accession 0001193125-26-231755 · sec.gov
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DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
