Fair value · Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) · updated 2026-09-03 · from 10-K FY2025
Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 14:10 ET
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use DDOG’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
free cash flow ÷ enterprise value (64.3× EV/FCF)
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 14:10 ET.
With preset inputs the methods land at $9.53 – $26 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $5.55 | -97% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $11 | -95% | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $13 | -94% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $67 | -69% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. estimate at or below $0, or more than 4× away from the price | Not meaningful for this company | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. No trajectory data available | No estimate | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. Negative operating earnings | No estimate | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | |
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001628280-26-008819
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-06).
Open this filing on sec.govEvery method that could be solved backwards opens on the assumption today’s price makes, so the top range sits on the price — that is arithmetic, not a view. Change any input and it becomes yours.
We don’t tell you what DDOG is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has DDOG’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.
Discounted cash flow
$213.53per share
0% below the $213.53 price
Your stage-1 FCF growth (60.3%) matches the 60.3% the price implies — your value lands on today’s price.
Your inputs — two-stage free-cash-flow model
Implied by today’s price
At $213.53 the market implies a stage-1 FCF growth of 60.3%. (two-stage FCF model solved for stage-1 growth at 12.8% WACC)
Implied discount rate (holding growth): 12.8% · the WACC that makes the same model print the price
This tab opens on that number, so the value above is today’s price restated. Move the slider to what you find reasonable: the growth matrix shows what DDOG has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
| Year | Stage | FCF | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage 1 | $1,605M | $1,423M |
| 2 | Stage 1 | $2,573M | $2,022M |
| 3 | Stage 1 | $4,125M | $2,874M |
| 4 | Stage 1 | $6,613M | $4,085M |
| 5 | Stage 1 | $10,603M | $5,806M |
| 6 | Stage 2 | $10,868M | $5,276M |
| 7 | Stage 2 | $11,140M | $4,794M |
| 8 | Stage 2 | $11,418M | $4,356M |
| 9 | Stage 2 | $11,704M | $3,959M |
| 10 | Stage 2 | $11,996M | $3,597M |
Inputs from the filing
10-K FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001628280-26-008819 · sec.gov
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Download the full DDOG valuation report (PDF) — free
DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
0.93
Put/Call (OI)
call-heavy
1.22
Put/Call (volume)
56%
ATM IV ~30d
$300
Call wall
10k OI
$180
Put wall
11k OI
As of previous close (2026-09-02) · OPRA historical data · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide positioning