Fair value · Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) · updated 2026-09-12 · from 10-K FY2026
Lumentum Holdings trades at $927.53. Its filings do not yet carry the positive earnings and cash flow these methods read a price back into.
Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 03:40 ET
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use LITE’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
With preset inputs the methods land at $38 – $56 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from company filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 03:40 ET.
How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $28 | -97% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $48 | -95% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $64 | -93% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. Negative or unavailable EPS | No estimate | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. No trajectory data available | No estimate | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. | |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. Requires positive EPS | No estimate | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. Negative EBITDA — ratio not meaningful | No estimate | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | |
What this means
- The methods differ by about 47%, from $38 to $56. That is normal: cash-flow methods and peer multiples see different things. Use the range, not a single number.
- The base case, $48, is the median of the 3 methods with data. It assumes Lumentum Holdings’s current margins, cash generation and share count persist; it does not price in a new product cycle, a recession or a buyback surge.
- The number moves when the filings move. The next 10-Q replaces the oldest quarter in the trailing-twelve-month EPS and cash-flow inputs; the last one (Q4 FY2026) was filed 2026-08-17. The price changes every day; the fair value only changes with the filings.
The filing behind these numbers
Lumentum Holdings Inc.- Revenue
- $3.0B
- Diluted EPS
- $-92.96
- Free cash flow
- $300.1M
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 74.6M
- weighted average
10-K FY2026 · fiscal year ended 2026-06-27 · filed 2026-08-17 · accession 0001628280-26-057358
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q4 FY2026 (filed 2026-08-17).
Open this filing on sec.gov