What is PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)'s fair-value range?

EvidInvest reads PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)'s market price back into the assumptions behind it — the implied P/E, growth rate and cash yield — using its latest filed financials, then lets you set your own. See the full DCF, Graham number, EPV and multiple-based methods at https://evidinvest.com/valuation/PDD.

How is PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)'s fair value calculated?

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)'s fair value is computed with several independent methods — a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the Graham number, earnings power value (EPV), and valuation multiples such as PE and EV/EBITDA — using data from SEC filings. P/B is optional for non-financial companies and included in the preset range for financial sectors.

Which filing are PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)'s valuation inputs based on?

Inputs come from the FY2025 20-F filed 2026-04-29 (accession 0001104659-26-050727). Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1737806/000110465926050727/

Fair value · PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) · updated 2026-10-28 · from 20-F FY2025

PDD Holdings trades at $76.94. We are not reading assumptions out of that price: this is a depositary receipt and we cannot show whether its per-share figures are stated per ADS or per ordinary share, so these methods are withheld rather than shown at a scale we cannot verify.

Name: PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) valuation inputs and fair-value methods
Creator: EvidInvest
License: https://evidinvest.com/subscription-terms

Everything below is unaffected: the filed statements, the filing they came from, and PDD’s growth history are all as reported.

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Inputs come from the FY2025 20-F filed 2026-04-29 (accession 0001104659-26-050727); set your own on the sliders below. Research, not investment advice.

The filing behind these numbers

PDD Holdings Inc.

Revenue: CNY 431.8B
Diluted EPS: CNY 16.50
Free cash flow: CNY 105.8B; operating cash flow − capital expenditure
Diluted shares: 5.93B; weighted average

20-F FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-04-29 · accession 0001104659-26-050727

Open this filing on sec.gov

Valuation tool: build your own PDD range

Fair Value Summary

Daily Price — PDD

$78.40 -43.1% (1Y)

Your range0 of 7 methods

At least two methods need a usable value to draw a range with these inputs.

Range with preset inputs

No preset range for this company yet.

The two ranges are identical because every input sits on a preset.

We don’t tell you what PDD is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has PDD’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.

Discounted cash flow

N/A

This is a depositary receipt and we cannot show whether its per-share figures are stated per ADS or per ordinary share, so these methods are withheld rather than shown at a scale we cannot verify.

Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing

Implied by today’s price

This is a depositary receipt and we cannot show whether its per-share figures are stated per ADS or per ordinary share, so these methods are withheld rather than shown at a scale we cannot verify.

Not solvable from the price — This is a depositary receipt and we cannot show whether its per-share figures are stated per ADS or per ordinary share, so these methods are withheld rather than shown at a scale we cannot verify. Showing preset inputs.

This method has no key input to read out of the price. The others below do, and you set them yourself: the growth matrix shows what PDD has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.

Your inputs

Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.

Stage-1 growth41.0%

Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.

-20.0%60.0%

Stage-1 years5 yrs

How long stage-1 growth lasts.

1 yrs10 yrs

Stage-2 growth12.8%

Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.

-20.0%30.0%

Stage-2 years5 yrs

0 yrs10 yrs

Terminal growth2.5%

Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.

0.0%5.0%

Discount rate (WACC)11.55%

The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.

3.00%15.00%

Net debt ($M)Debt minus cash, from the balance sheet. Subtracted from enterprise value.

Starting FCF ($M)Latest free cash flow from the filing (operating cash flow minus capex).

Shares (M)Diluted shares, from the filing.

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

PV explicit $413,198M · PV terminal $583,867M · EV $997,065M · equity $1,011,852M

Year	Stage	FCF	Present value
1	Stage 1	$21,307M	$19,100M
2	Stage 1	$30,042M	$24,143M
3	Stage 1	$42,359M	$30,517M
4	Stage 1	$59,727M	$38,574M
5	Stage 1	$84,215M	$48,757M
6	Stage 2	$94,994M	$49,304M
7	Stage 2	$107,154M	$49,856M
8	Stage 2	$120,869M	$50,415M
9	Stage 2	$136,341M	$50,980M
10	Stage 2	$153,792M	$51,551M

Inputs from the filing

Statements filed in CNY, converted to USD at the 2025-12-31 period-end rate (7.0010 CNY per USD; ECB reference rates).

Free cash flow: $15.1B; latest full year
EBIT: $13.3B; latest annual
Shares: 1.41B
Total debt: $768.3M
Cash: $15.6B
Net debt: $-14.8B; debt − cash

20-F FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-04-29 · accession 0001104659-26-050727 · sec.gov

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Options positioning

Full options view: walls, IV term structure, smile →

0.75

Put/Call (OI)

call-heavy

0.93

Put/Call (volume)

40%

ATM IV ~30d

$80

Call wall

58k OI

$75

Put wall

52k OI

As of previous close (2026-10-27) · OPRA historical data · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide positioning

PDD Holdings trades at $76.94. We are not reading assumptions out of that price: this is a depositary receipt and we cannot show whether its per-share figures are stated per ADS or per ordinary share, so these methods are withheld rather than shown at a scale we cannot verify.

The filing behind these numbers

Valuation tool: build your own PDD range

Daily Price — PDD

Your range0 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

Options positioning

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Valuation tool: build your own PDD range

Daily Price — PDD

Your range0 of 7 methods

Range with preset inputs

Your inputs

Year by year (two-stage model, $M)

Options positioning

More on PDD

Compare with peers

Explore