Applied Optoelectronics filed $269.9 million of revenue. Its year-end 800G and 1.6T capacity line went from 'around 650,000' to 'over 500,000' a month.

Every figure below was read from the companies' own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession: Applied Optoelectronics' third-quarter results furnished on Form 8-K on 5 November and its Form 10-Q filed minutes later, its credit-agreement 8-K of 4 November, and the Marvell and Lumentum 8-Ks of 2 November with the merger agreement. Where the 8-K and the 10-Q both give a figure, we cite the 10-Q. Outlook figures are the companies' own and are labelled as company guidance. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no share prices, and nothing from the earnings calls, which are not filings. Sums, differences and quarterly figures derived from year-to-date totals are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI furnished its third-quarter results on 5 November (accession 0001683168-26-008351) and filed its 10-Q minutes later (0001437749-26-035282). The release's first number is revenue of $269.9 million. Its CFO paragraph has a second one, and it moved.

In August the same paragraph said AOI expected "by the end of this year that we will be capable of producing around 650,000 pieces of 800G and 1.6 Tb products per month" (0001683168-26-006055). In November it says "we now expect by the end of 2026 that we will have sufficient manufacturing equipment installed to produce over 500,000 pieces". The reason given: "We expect our 2027 capacity expansion plan in the US to take longer to complete due to longer than expected time to obtain necessary electrical power among other construction related issues."

If you are here for a forecast, wrong page. What follows is the quarter as filed, the cash that built the capacity, and, for Lumentum, the merger agreement Marvell filed on 2 November, clause by clause.

1. The guide against the quarter

Guide from the second-quarter release (0001683168-26-006055); result from the 10-Q and the release (0001437749-26-035282, 0001683168-26-008351); new guide from the release:

(Ours: revenue was $2.6 million below the $272.5 million midpoint of the guide; non-GAAP gross margin was 0.3 points below the bottom of its range; the fourth-quarter revenue range is 42.7% to 55.6% above the third quarter.)

GAAP net income of $6.3 million follows a $22.8 million loss in the second quarter. The operating line is still a loss, $1.4 million; other income of $10.1 million, including $3.1 million of interest income, carried the quarter into profit before a $2.4 million tax charge (0001437749-26-035282).

2. Data center is 57.7% of revenue

The 10-Q's market table (0001437749-26-035282), with the second quarter from the Q2 10-Q (0001437749-26-026278), $ million:

(Ours: Data Center rose 44.5% on the quarter and CATV 37.6%.) For nine months, Data Center was $344.7 million, or 56.2% of revenue.

3. Three customers, 92% of the quarter

The 10-Q: "For the three months ended September 30, 2026, our top three customers represented 41%, 28% and 23% of our revenue, respectively." In the second quarter the three were 42%, 26% and 24% (0001437749-26-026278). The top ten were 99% in both quarters. (Ours: 41% + 28% + 23% = 92%, the same total as the second quarter's 42% + 26% + 24%.) The percentage sentences name no customer.

Two names are in the 10-Q elsewhere. Of $413.8 million of receivables, "$234.5 million was due from Digicomm International Inc.", "approximately 56.7% of total accounts receivable", and "Management has extended longer than typical payment terms to Digicomm". For nine months, "revenues from Digicomm were approximately $257.0 million, representing approximately 41.9% of consolidated revenues", mostly CATV. And the Amazon warrant: of 7,945,399 warrant shares, the remaining 6,621,166 "may vest over the next 10 years, dependent on aggregate purchases by Amazon of $4 billion of our products over this time period." Warrants reduced nine-month revenue by about $4.1 million.

The release mentions "a multi-year strategic agreement with a Tier 1 hyperscale datacenter customer". The 10-Q gives the terms. The customer "is obligated, with certain conditions, to purchase 10% of certain 1.6 Tb data center transceiver products from us during the three-year period beginning June, 2026 and ending May, 2029." AOI in turn is "obligated to supply these products, including building any additional manufacturing capacity needed to fulfill this demand", and has "agreed to certain maximum pricing levels". The 10-Q does not name the customer or give a dollar value.

4. Capacity: the two sentences side by side

(Ours: the end-2026 floor is 150,000 pieces below the August figure; the installed figure is up about 130,000.) The November wording also changed the noun: August's was "capable of producing", November's is "sufficient manufacturing equipment installed to produce". The 10-Q's version: AOI expects "to continue to make investments in capacity expansion through at least the end of 2027".

5. Cash: capex and prepayments

Cash-flow statements of the two 10-Qs (0001437749-26-035282, 0001437749-26-026278), $ million:

(Ours: nine-month capex plus prepayments was $1,109.1 million, against operating cash of −$76.7 million; third-quarter figures are nine months less six months.) The 10-Q splits nine-month capex into "$315.4 million capital expenditures in the US, $177.4 million in Taiwan, and $209.3 million in China."

The prepayments sit in "Other assets, net", $465.7 million against $50.9 million at 31 December, "advance payments for equipment and facility related capital expenditures" that "are expected to be reclassified to property, plant and equipment as the related assets are received and placed into service." Net property, plant and equipment was $1,044.0 million, against $376.1 million. (Ours: 2.78 times December.) Construction in progress was $234.7 million, against $39.8 million.

Equity paid for it. The 10-Q puts nine-month financing at $1.59 billion, "primarily attributable to the net proceeds of $1.59 billion from the ATM Offerings". A third program "completed" on 1 October with proceeds of "approximately $588 million". Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $621.5 million at 30 September.

6. Commitments and the new loan

Note 18 of the 10-Q (0001437749-26-035282) lists "other outstanding purchase commitments for equipment and facility construction of approximately $928.8 million". It adds $27.1 million left on a $94.1 million cleanroom contract in Pearland, targeted for "January 10, 2027", and purchase options on leased Houston buildings at $102.25 million and about $146.6 million, neither exercised.

(Ours: up $99.2 million, or 35.6%, in the quarter; raw materials 2.4 times December.) Accounts payable were $494.3 million, against $143.9 million.

Debt is small next to the equity. Loans excluding the convertible notes were $96.6 million, with $63.4 million available on existing lines, and $128.8 million of convertible senior notes. On 30 October AOI signed a credit agreement with East West Bank as agent (8-K of 4 November, 0001683168-26-008310): "$30 million in revolving commitments and $170 million in initial term loan commitments", maturing 30 October 2030, secured "by substantially all of the Company's assets". Term loans "may be used to purchase or refinance eligible equipment". It replaced the BOK Financial facility, with a $350,000 termination fee.

One more subsequent event: on 2 November AOI signed a supply contract for "a key raw material" with purchases "of up to approximately $194.4 million" and prepayments "of up to $40.0 million". Delivery "is subject to obtaining and maintaining required regulatory approvals in China." The 10-Q does not name the material.

7. Lumentum: nothing new since 4 November, except the agreement

Lumentum's results 8-K (0001628280-26-068655) and 10-Q (0001628280-26-069615) were both on file when we published its six lines on 4 November, so that post already reads them: $1,262.6 million of revenue, a $1.575–1.625 billion second-quarter guide, one end customer at 37%, $2.95 billion of purchase obligations. Since then Lumentum has filed only Rule 425 communications; the newest (0001193125-26-448735, 5 November) is a LinkedIn post with no new terms. Coherent's read-back ran on 5 November. We found no Form S-4 on EDGAR at 04:30 UTC today.

8. The Marvell–Lumentum terms, as filed

Marvell's 8-K (0001193125-26-442717), Item 1.01, and the merger agreement in Exhibit 2.1. The agreement was signed on 1 November.

Common stock. Each Lumentum share converts into "4.500 shares of common stock" of Marvell, "with cash in lieu of fractional shares". The ratio is fixed.

Preferred stock. Each share of Lumentum Series A Convertible Preferred Stock converts into Marvell common stock on an as-converted basis times the exchange ratio. Its holder can instead elect "one share of Marvell Series B Preferred Stock", "intended to have the same terms and rights as the Lumentum Series A Preferred Stock". The agreement counts, at 29 October, 90,684,914 common shares, 2,876,415 Series A preferred shares, each "convertible into one (1) share", and 7,271,887 shares issuable on conversion of the convertible notes. (Ours: (90,684,914 + 2,876,415) × 4.500 = 421,025,981 Marvell shares, before awards and notes.) Holders of the notes keep the right to convert "into the Common Stock Merger Consideration".

Equity awards. Options, RSUs and PSUs convert into Marvell awards at the ratio, "except that performance stock units will be converted into solely time-vesting restricted stock units", counted at "the greater of target and actual performance levels for stock price performance metrics".

Votes. Lumentum needs "a majority of the voting power of the outstanding shares" of common and Series A preferred, voting together. Marvell needs a majority of the voting power at its meeting for the share issuance, plus approval of a charter amendment "to increase the number of authorized shares". Both votes come through a joint proxy in a Form S-4.

Regulators. The conditions include the HSR waiting period and "certain other required regulatory approvals", listed in "Section 7.1(c) of the Parent Disclosure Letter"; the 8-K says schedules "have been omitted". Marvell must accept divestitures and other "Remedial Action", except one "material (in an adverse manner)" to the combined business, a "Burdensome Condition".

Outside date and fees. 1 November 2027, "which may be extended to February 1, 2028, May 1, 2028 and August 1, 2028" if regulatory approvals are outstanding. Marvell pays $5.8 billion if its board withdraws its recommendation or it takes a superior proposal; Lumentum pays $2.9 billion in the reciprocal cases; Marvell pays a $3.2 billion "Regulatory Termination Fee" if the deal fails on antitrust grounds with everything else satisfied. (Ours: Marvell's general fee is twice Lumentum's.) The filed terms carry no deal value, and we compute none: it would rest on share prices.

What to hold the next filing to

1. AOI's end-2026 line, "over 500,000 pieces" a month, and whether the 10-K repeats it.
2. AOI revenue against $385–420 million, and Data Center against $155.6 million.
3. Capex plus prepayments against $1,109.1 million for nine months, and commitments against $928.8 million.
4. The East West Bank term loan: how much of the $170 million is drawn.
5. For Marvell and Lumentum: the S-4, its list of regulators and its background section.

Run it yourself

/filings/AAOI lists the 8-K and the 10-Q, and /valuation/AAOI lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers. Open the two releases, August's and November's, and read the CFO paragraph in each; it takes two minutes. Then read the 10-Q's "Trends and Other Matters" section for the hyperscaler agreement.

Write down the lines you will hold AOI to: 500,000 pieces a month, $928.8 million of commitments, 92% from three customers. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you wrote and tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

The revenue was inside the guide. The capacity sentence is the line that changed.

Sources. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Form 8-K of 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q3 2026 results and Q4 2026 outlook): accession 0001683168-26-008351 (sec.gov). Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026: 0001437749-26-035282 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 4 November 2026 (credit agreement): 0001683168-26-008310 (sec.gov). Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026: 0001437749-26-026278 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 6 August 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q2 2026 results and Q3 2026 outlook): 0001683168-26-006055 (sec.gov). Marvell Technology, Inc. Form 8-K of 2 November 2026, Item 1.01 and Exhibit 2.1 (Agreement and Plan of Merger): 0001193125-26-442717 (sec.gov). Lumentum Holdings Inc. Form 8-K of 2 November 2026 (results): 0001628280-26-068655; Form 8-K of 2 November 2026 (merger): 0001193125-26-442758; Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026: 0001628280-26-069615; Rule 425 communication of 5 November 2026: 0001193125-26-448735. EDGAR was checked at 04:30 UTC on 7 November 2026. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, share price, deal value or call remark appears on this page; our arithmetic is labelled as ours. Research, not investment advice.