Nebius's contract book reached $38.7 billion. Its 2026 capex guide rose to about $27 billion. Nebius's third quarter, read back.

Every figure below was read from Nebius's own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession: the two Forms 6-K of 12 November 2026 (the results release and shareholder letter, and the Operating and Financial Review with the unaudited third-quarter financial statements), read against the lines we set on 9 November. Guidance is Nebius's own and is labelled as such. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no share prices, because none of them is filed, and nothing from the earnings call, which is not a filing either. Sums, shares and differences Nebius does not print are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

On 9 November we set five Nebius lines before the print: the Microsoft and Meta contracts, the $37.49 billion of remaining performance obligations, the prepayments that carried operating cash flow, and the debt that funds the build. Each line ended with a check. Nebius filed its third quarter on 12 November in two 6-Ks: the release and the shareholder letter (0001104659-26-126008), and the Operating and Financial Review with the financial statements (0001104659-26-126238). Where both give a figure, we cite the financial statements.

Here is each check, answered from the filings.

The quarter in four filed lines

Revenue was $980.8 million in the third quarter, against $146.1 million a year earlier (0001104659-26-126238, Exhibit 99.1). The Nebius AI cloud segment was $973.8 million of it, and that figure "included revenue from strategic partnerships of $325.1 million". The filing calls those revenues "by their nature non-recurring". (Ours: partnerships were 33% of segment revenue.) There was no partnership revenue a year earlier.

Income from operations was $50.4 million, against a loss of $130.2 million a year earlier. Interest expense rose from $14.7 million to $112.5 million, and an induced conversion expense of $49.5 million came from exchanging convertible notes for shares. Net loss from continuing operations was $37.5 million.

Nebius's own non-GAAP measure, adjusted EBITDA, was $465.8 million for the group and $518.2 million for the AI cloud segment, a margin the letter puts at 53.2% (0001104659-26-126008, Exhibit 99.2). One accounting line sits under all of these: "Starting in the first quarter of 2026, we revised the useful lives of our server and network equipment from four years to five years", which "partially offset the increase in depreciation expense" (0001104659-26-126238). Depreciation and amortization was still $354.7 million in the quarter, against $99.0 million a year earlier.

1. Microsoft: "all capacity tranches" in August, "more than half" by year-end now

The check was whether the Microsoft contract is still named. It is, in the letter, with a new schedule. In August the second-quarter letter said: "To date, we've delivered all capacity tranches to Microsoft under the contract" (0001104659-26-094568). The third-quarter letter (0001104659-26-126008) says: "In New Jersey, we now expect to have delivered more than half of the capacity contracted with Microsoft by the end of the year, with the remaining tranches now scheduled for 2Q27."

The letter gives the reason: "In late Q3, DataOne started to retire some of the site's temporary generation ahead of the move to permanent power. That decision reset the schedule for the remaining tranches. Microsoft has been part of the planning process." It adds that "Delivery dates at a number of colocation sites shifted into the first half of 2027, including the remaining New Jersey tranches."

The two letters describe the same contract differently. The filings do not reconcile the two sentences, and we do not either. The $17.4 billion contract value of September 2025 is not restated in the third-quarter filings.

2. Meta: named once, beside financing

The check was any change in the 2027 delivery language. The text of the third-quarter 6-Ks does not repeat the "early 2027" sentence on the second Meta agreement. The agreement appears once, in the letter's financing section: "Our agreements with Microsoft and Meta can be financed the same way, and with more than $40 billion of similar committed revenue we see this as a repeatable framework" (0001104659-26-126008). "The same way" refers to the July term loan, "$775 million at SOFR plus 2.50%, secured against long-term agreements with an investment-grade customer". (Part of the letter is laid out as graphics; we read its text layer.)

3. $38.7 billion of RPO, with 40% due inside 24 months

The check was RPO at 30 September and whether a single customer passes 25%. Both have an answer.

From the financial statements (0001104659-26-126238, Exhibit 99.2): "As of September 30, 2026, the amount of unsatisfied RPO was $38.7 billion, of which 40% is expected to be recognized as revenue during the 24 months ending September 30, 2028, 40% between months 25 and 48, and the remainder recognized thereafter." At 30 June the same note gave $37,490.6 million, with 36% inside 24 months (0001104659-26-094844). The letter calls it "up 3% from $37.5 billion".

RPO line	30 June 2026	30 September 2026
RPO, as filed	$37,490.6M	$38.7B
Share inside 24 months, as filed	36%	40%
Inside 24 months (Ours)	≈ $13.5B	≈ $15.5B
Deferred revenue, as filed	$5,975.2M	$9,409.2M

(Ours: 36% × $37.49 billion and 40% × $38.7 billion.) The letter says that "since the start of Q3, our customers have committed over $12 billion in contract value", while RPO rose by about $1.2 billion (Ours: $38.7 billion − $37.49 billion). The filings do not bridge the two figures. RPO is drawn down as revenue is recognized, and the note excludes "performance obligations with an original duration of one year or less".

Deferred revenue rose by $3,434.0 million in the quarter, which the note attributes to "prepayments received in advance for future services". Concentration moved too:

Revenue share, as filed	Q2 2026	Q3 2026
Customer C	24%	15%
Customer D	21%	22%
Customer E	14%	33%

Q2 shares from 0001104659-26-094844, Q3 from 0001104659-26-126238. The notes use letters only. Customer E passed 25%. Customer D "accounted for 75%" of accounts receivable at 30 September, which were $4,039.9 million, against $720.3 million at 31 December.

4. Prepayments covered capex on new deals; cash still ran behind the build

The check was the nine-month capex figure and the deferred-revenue balance.

Nine months to 30 September (0001104659-26-126238): operating cash flow of $4,231.1 million, "primarily driven by advance payments received from customers, resulting in an increase in deferred revenue of $7,829.0 million, partially offset by an increase in accounts receivable of $3,333.9 million". Purchases of property and equipment and intangible assets were $15,430.7 million.

(Ours: capex exceeded operating cash flow by $11,199.6 million; without the deferred-revenue increase, operating cash flow would have been about −$3,597.9 million.)

The third quarter on its own, from the release (0001104659-26-126008): operating cash flow of −$273.0 million and capex of $7,300.4 million. Interest expense included "$58.7 million" in the quarter "of interest on advances received from major customers and on equipment received in advance from suppliers under deferred payment arrangements" (0001104659-26-126238). The prepayments carry a cost in the income statement.

The letter sets new terms against the 9 November lines. In August (0001104659-26-094568): 70% of second-quarter deals included prepayments "covering 50-60% of the associated capex". Now: "Prepayments on deals signed in Q3 covered over 100% of associated capital expenditures, up from 50%-60% in Q2", and "More than 90% of contract value signed in the third quarter carried a prepayment". The 2026 prepayment line went from "over $9 billion" to "We expect $10 billion in committed customer prepayments in 2026", rising to $17–20 billion in 2027.

5. $16.48 billion of debt principal, and the Citi facility after quarter-end

The check was the debt note at 30 September and whether the Citi facility is drawn.

At 30 September principal outstanding was $16,478.0 million, carried at $14,162.8 million (0001104659-26-126238, Note 12). At 30 June the six convertible series were $10,041.8 million of principal (0001104659-26-094844). In between came the August notes, which the table carries at $3,795.0 million (due February 2030) and $2,875.0 million (due February 2034). (Ours: those are 110% and 125% of the $3.45 billion and $2.3 billion issued, the amounts the notes accrete to at maturity.) Then the exchange of "$400.0 original principal amount of each series" of the June 2029 and June 2031 notes, "$800.0 in aggregate", for 15,770,124 Class A shares. The term loan stood at $751.8 million.

Debt line, 30 September 2026	Principal, as filed
Eight convertible series	$15,726.2M (Ours, sum of the eight)
Term Loan Facility, SOFR+2.5%, October 2030	$751.8M
Total debt	$16,478.0M

The Citi facility is a subsequent event in the same note: "On October 22, 2026, the Group entered into a senior secured facility agreement with Citi in an aggregate principal amount of $3.5 billion", with "a maturity of 364 days". The note does not say whether any of it has been drawn.

Two more funding lines sit outside the debt table. Leases signed but not commenced came to $13,862.3 million, "expected to commence between 2026 and 2029", against $12,054.1 million at 30 June. And the at-the-market program raised net proceeds of $1,048.5 million in the quarter; "7,636,707 Class A shares remained available for sale" at 30 September.

The guide as filed

On 9 November we found no 2026 capex figure in the August filings. The third-quarter letter files the guide, including the ranges it replaces (0001104659-26-126008, Exhibit 99.2). Nebius states one reason for the change: "some third-party capacity we expected to come online this year is now scheduled for the first half of 2027. The contracts behind that capacity remain in place."

Line, as filed	Before	Now
2026 revenue	$3.0–3.4 billion range	"at the low end of our $3.0-3.4 billion range"
2026 adjusted EBITDA margin	approximately 40%	"Unchanged, at approximately 40%"
2026 capital expenditures	$20–25 billion range	"Approximately $27 billion, above our $20-25 billion range"
ARR	"$7-9 billion by December"	"exceed $7 billion for the month of February"
2027 revenue	—	"$12-13 billion"
2027 capex	—	"$40-$45 billion, sized for more than 1 GW of new capacity"
2027 pre-tax profit	—	"breakeven in Q4 2027"

Two pieces of our arithmetic put the guide next to the nine months. (Ours: the low end of $3.0 billion less nine-month revenue of $1,962.1 million leaves about $1,037.9 million for the fourth quarter; about $27 billion of capex less $15,430.7 million of nine-month purchases leaves about $11.6 billion, if the guide is measured like the cash-flow line, which the letter does not say.)

On funding 2027, the letter says it expects "to cover 75-85% of our capex through advanced prepayments and asset-backed financing investment-grade customers along with our balance sheet". Cash and cash equivalents were $7,425.6 million at 30 September (0001104659-26-126238).

The letter also says that from 2027 Nebius "will provide guidance for revenue, pre-tax earnings and capacity", and drops ARR: "ARR annualizes a single month, and does not reflect the scale of our business."

What the next filings will show

Applied Digital and IREN, the other two names on the 9 November page, had already reported; their lines stand as written there.

For Nebius, five things to watch:

Whether the remaining Microsoft tranches are delivered in the second quarter of 2027, as the letter now schedules them.
RPO against the "over $12 billion" signed since 1 July, and the share inside 24 months.
Customer E's share of revenue, and Customer D's share of receivables.
Fourth-quarter capex against the about $27 billion guide, and deferred revenue against the $10 billion of committed prepayments.
The debt note: whether the $3.5 billion Citi facility is drawn, and any asset-backed facility against the Microsoft or Meta agreements.

Run it yourself

Open the 12 November 6-K with the financial statements, search for "unsatisfied RPO", and write $38.7 billion next to June's $37,490.6 million. Then search the shareholder letter for "2026 Guidance" and copy the capex line. That is lines 3 and 4, one quarter on. /valuation/NBIS lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers.

Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you wrote and tells you which of those lines moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

In nine months, customers paid Nebius $7.8 billion in advance. The build cost $15.4 billion, and the debt grew beside it.

Sources. Nebius Group N.V. Form 6-K of 12 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q3 2026 results release) and Exhibit 99.2 (letter to shareholders): accession 0001104659-26-126008 (sec.gov). Form 6-K of 12 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Operating and Financial Review) and Exhibit 99.2 (unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the three and nine months ended 30 September 2026): accession 0001104659-26-126238 (sec.gov). Lines read against: Form 6-K of 12 August 2026, Q2 results release and shareholder letter, 0001104659-26-094568; Form 6-K of 12 August 2026, Operating and Financial Review and Q2 financial statements, 0001104659-26-094844. EDGAR was checked on 13 November 2026. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, share price, price target or call remark appears on this page. Sums, shares and differences are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.