Nebius, Applied Digital and IREN have more than $90 billion of contracts on file. Prepayments and debt are building it.

Every figure below was read from Nebius's, Applied Digital's and IREN's own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession. Contract values and run-rate figures are the companies' own and are labelled as theirs. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no share prices, because none of them is filed, and nothing from earnings calls, which are not filings either. Sums, differences and shares are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

Update, 13 November: Nebius filed its third-quarter results on Form 6-K on 12 November: the release and shareholder letter (0001104659-26-126008) and the financial statements (0001104659-26-126238). Against the lines below: remaining performance obligations were "$38.7 billion" at 30 September, "of which 40%" falls in the 24 months to September 2028 (line 3 had $37,490.6 million and 36%); Customer E was 33% of third-quarter revenue (line 3 asked whether one customer passes 25%); nine-month purchases of property and equipment and intangible assets were $15,430.7 million and deferred revenue was $9,409.2 million (line 4); debt principal was $16,478.0 million at 30 September, and the 6-K does not say whether the Citi facility is drawn (line 5). On Microsoft (line 1), the letter now says Nebius expects "to have delivered more than half of the capacity contracted with Microsoft by the end of the year, with the remaining tranches now scheduled for 2Q27". The 2026 guide as filed: revenue "at the low end of our $3.0-3.4 billion range" and capital expenditures "Approximately $27 billion, above our $20-25 billion range". Applied Digital has filed no new results since 7 October, and IREN's 5 November filings were already read in lines 10–12. A later post reads the Nebius lines in full.

A GPU contract makes a headline the day it is signed. Whether it turns into revenue depends on things the headline leaves out: when the capacity is delivered, how much the customer pays upfront, and how the rest of the build is financed. Those parts are in the filings.

Three companies that rent out AI computing capacity have filed them. Nebius $NBIS sells GPU cloud capacity, with Microsoft and Meta among its named contracts. Applied Digital (APLD) builds data centres and leases them, CoreWeave being the named tenant at its Polaris Forge 1 campus. IREN sells GPU cloud services and has a $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft. Add up what each one reports as contracted and it comes to about $93.5 billion. (Ours: $37.49 billion + $35.73 billion + $20.30 billion, measured three different ways at three different dates; lines 3, 6 and 10 say how.)

At publication Nebius had not filed its third-quarter results, and no results date was in its filings. We checked EDGAR on 9 November: the newest Nebius 6-K was of 22 October, a new credit facility (line 5). The results 6-Ks arrived on 12 November. The other two have already reported: Applied Digital its fiscal first quarter on 7 October, IREN its fiscal first quarter on 5 November, with a 10-Q the same evening. Their lines below are from those filings.

If you want a forecast, wrong page. Twelve lines on file: what is contracted, with whom, for how long, and how it is paid for.

Nebius

1. Microsoft: $17.4 billion, delivered

The 6-K of 8 September 2025 (accession 0001104659-25-088312) describes dedicated GPU capacity for Microsoft at Nebius's data centre in Vineland, New Jersey, over a five-year term. "The total contract value is about $17.4 billion through 2031", or "about $19.4 billion" if Microsoft takes additional services. "Cash flow coming from the Agreement will be utilized to finance part of the capital expenditure associated with the Agreement." The Q2 shareholder letter (Exhibit 99.2, 0001104659-26-094568) says Nebius has "delivered all capacity tranches to Microsoft under the contract".

Check: whether the Microsoft contract is still named, and its share of revenue.

2. Meta: $12 billion firm, up to $15 billion contingent

The 6-K of 16 March 2026 (0001104659-26-027886): orders "for dedicated GPU capacity clusters" with "a total contract value of $12 billion", deployed "in tranches starting early 2027". A further order gives Meta access to unsold capacity on certain clusters; where Nebius does not place it with other customers, "Meta is obligated to purchase such unsold capacity", with "a potential total contract value of up to $15 billion". The whole agreement is "up to approximately $27 billion". In August the letter said the build-out "supporting our second Meta agreement" was "on track to come online in early 2027".

So $12 billion is firm and $15 billion depends on how much Nebius places elsewhere. Our Meta read-back found that Meta's own filings do not name Nebius.

Check: any change in the 2027 delivery language.

3. $37.49 billion of remaining performance obligations, no customer named

From the Q2 financial statements (Exhibit 99.2 to 0001104659-26-094844): "As of June 30, 2026, the amount of unsatisfied RPO was $37,490.6", in millions, "of which 36% is expected to be recognized as revenue during the 24 months ending June 30, 2028, 40% between months 25 and 48". (Ours: about $13.5 billion within 24 months.) Deferred revenue, the cash already received, was $5,975.2 million.

Concentration: Customer C was 24% of second-quarter revenue, Customer D 21% and Customer E 14%. The note uses letters only. Second-quarter revenue was $582.3 million (0001104659-26-094568).

Check: RPO at 30 September, and whether a single customer passes 25%.

4. Customers paid upfront; capex still ran ahead of cash

First-half 2026 (0001104659-26-094844, Exhibit 99.1): operating cash flow of $4,504.1 million, "primarily driven by advance payments received from customers, resulting in an increase in deferred revenue of $4,395.0 million". Purchases of property and equipment and intangible assets were $8,130.3 million. (Ours: capex exceeded operating cash flow by $3,626.2 million; without the deferred-revenue increase, operating cash flow would have been $109.1 million.)

The letter: "We expect to receive over $9 billion in customer prepayments in 2026"; 70% of second- quarter deals included prepayments "covering 50-60% of the associated capex". It also says guidance would be given on the call, so no 2026 capex figure is in these filings.

Check: the nine-month capex figure and the deferred-revenue balance.

5. $10.04 billion of convertibles at June, then $5.75 billion more

At 30 June, six convertible series had principal outstanding of $10,041.8 million, carried at $8,499.0 million (0001104659-26-094844). In August Nebius issued $3.45 billion of 0.50% notes due 2030 and $2.3 billion of 4.50% notes due 2034 (0001104659-26-100347). Principal "reaches 110%" (2030 notes) and "125%" (2034 notes) of the original amount at maturity (0001104659-26-098924).

The first secured debt came in July: "approximately $775" million at SOFR plus 2.50%, maturing 31 October 2030, "collateralized by deployed GPU infrastructure and by contracted cash flows arising under a customer agreement with an investment-grade counterparty" (0001104659-26-094844). The same filing lists leases signed but not commenced of $12,054.1 million, commencing 2026–2027, and energy and power commitments of $5,324.1 million (Ours, sum of the yearly amounts).

On 22 October a further 6-K (0001104659-26-117978) announced "a $3.5 billion senior secured facility provided by Citi", with "a 364-day maturity", interest at "Term SOFR plus 2.75% per annum, increasing up to a maximum of 3.50%", and proceeds "for data center development and GPU procurement, as well as for general corporate purposes".

Check: the debt note at 30 September and whether the Citi facility is drawn.

Applied Digital (already reported)

6. 1,410 MW leased for 15 years: $35.73 billion of minimum payments

The 10-K for the year to 31 May 2026 (0001144879-26-000048) tabulates the portfolio:

Each lease "is structured on a take-or-pay basis, and is non-cancellable". The fiscal first-quarter 10-Q (0001144879-26-000059) gives minimum contracted payments of $35,731,035 thousand: $468.0 million in the rest of fiscal 2027, $1,579.5 million in fiscal 2028, $2,360.6 million in fiscal 2029, and $26,580.2 million after fiscal 2031. (Ours: 74% of the total falls after fiscal 2031.)

7. CoreWeave is the named tenant; "Customer A" is not named

CoreWeave's 400 MW is about 30% of the $36.2 billion (Ours: 11.0 ÷ 36.2). On 30 March 2026 two data halls under one CoreWeave lease were re-leased to a wholly owned CoreWeave subsidiary "on substantially the same terms", and a second lease was assigned to that subsidiary, each backed by an "Unconditional Springing Guaranty" from CoreWeave, which also owed a $50 million letter of credit (0001144879-26-000048).

Customer A was 56% of fiscal first-quarter revenue and 59% of fiscal 2026 revenue (0001144879-26-000059, 0001144879-26-000048). Neither filing names Customer A. Our CoreWeave post reads the tenant's side of the same contracts.

8. $63.9 million of operating cash, $2.07 billion of capex

Fiscal first quarter (0001144879-26-000059): operating cash flow of $63,921 thousand against purchases of property and equipment of $2,074,698 thousand. (Ours: capex was about 32 times operating cash flow.) The financing lines show borrowings of $1,648.5 million and preferred stock proceeds of $275.0 million. HPC hosting revenue of $262.6 million included $183.5 million of tenant fit-out services and $65.8 million of base rent (8-K, 0001144879-26-000057), so rent is still the smaller part.

9. $6.72 billion of debt, most of it due in fiscal 2031

Principal outstanding at 31 August was $6,721.6 million (0001144879-26-000059): 9.25% senior secured notes due 2030 ($2.35 billion), 6.75% due 2031 ($2.15 billion), the new 7.00% due 2031 ($1.59 billion), 2.75% convertibles ($450 million), a revolver and other debt. Scheduled principal: $108.7 million in the rest of fiscal 2027, $221.5 million in fiscal 2028, and $4,256.7 million in fiscal 2031. Estimated interest totals $2,156.4 million.

(Ours: minimum lease payments of $2,047.5 million in fiscal 2027–28 against $1,146.8 million of principal and interest due in the same two years.)

IREN (reported 5 November)

10. Microsoft: $9.7 billion, 20% paid before delivery; one of four Horizons in service

The 10-K for the year to 30 June 2026 (0001878848-26-000052): GPU services for Microsoft at Childress, Texas, "over a five-year average term", in four tranches. "The total contract value is approximately $9.7 billion through 2031, with 20% of the contract value for each tranche to be paid prior to the applicable delivery date". (Ours: 20% of $9.7 billion is $1.94 billion.) The 8-K of 13 August (0001140361-26-032638): Horizon 1, the first of four 50 MW deployments, "has been delivered to and accepted by Microsoft".

The fiscal first-quarter 10-Q (0001878848-26-000066): "At Microsoft's request, we are implementing a network design change across the Horizon deployments. Under the Microsoft Agreement, delivery dates are extended, without delay credits, for delays resulting from a Microsoft-requested change." The results release (8-K, 0001878848-26-000065) moves the more than $4 billion ARR target, "previously year-end 2026", to "January 2027", and says it "may extend to February 2027".

The 10-K also lists NVIDIA, five years, about $3.4 billion, and says the Microsoft and NVIDIA contracts "represent a substantial majority of our contracted revenue". At 30 September the 10-Q gives RPO of $6,347 million, $1,529 million of it within 12 months, plus a "remaining aggregate contracted value of lease arrangements" of "approximately $13,957 million". (Ours: $20,304 million, against $16.6 billion at 30 June.) Customers A, B and C were 28%, 24% and 18% of first-quarter revenue of $228 million; the note uses letters only.

Check: acceptance of Horizons 2–4 and the delivery dates agreed with Microsoft.

11. Prepayments still carry operating cash flow

First-quarter operating cash flow was $529 million (0001878848-26-000066), with "an increase in deferred revenue of $645 million from AI Cloud contracts". (Ours: about -$116 million without it.) Fiscal 2026 too: $2,100.4 million, including $1,841.7 million of deferred revenue from prepayments (0001878848-26-000052). Deferred lease revenue rose to $2,096 million from $1,623 million at 30 June.

Capex in the quarter: $2,693 million for computer hardware and $2,131 million for property, plant and equipment net of hardware. (Ours: $4,824 million, about nine times operating cash flow.) Commitments were $18,947 million, against $13,810 million at 30 June.

12. $10.04 billion of debt, two-thirds of it convertible

Principal at 30 September was $10,041 million, against $7,706 million at 30 June (0001878848-26-000066): six convertible series of $6,745 million (Ours, sum of the six), two new GPU financings of $947 million and $355 million due 2029, and $1,980 million of non-recourse debt for the Microsoft GPUs, a $3,645 million commitment. If Microsoft terminates a funded tranche and no replacement customer is found, IREN guarantees that tranche's debt, net of any proceeds from disposing of its GPUs (10-K). $6,431 million falls due after fiscal 2031 (Ours: 64.0%).

The release puts "remaining planned FY27 capex" at $15 billion: $9 billion "of cash and committed GPU financing and prepayments" and $6 billion "of target GPU financing, prepayments, data center financing and other corporate level sources subject to market conditions".

What to read first

For Nebius, read the RPO note before revenue. It shows how much of the $37.49 billion has moved to the near-term bucket. Then deferred revenue and the debt note: how much of the build customers paid for, and how much was borrowed. For IREN, read whether Horizons 2–4 are accepted and what the delivery-date discussions settle. For Applied Digital, the next 10-Q will show whether base rent has overtaken fit-out revenue.

Across all three, the contracts are with a small number of large customers, and the debt was raised against those contracts. The filings show both.

Run it yourself

Start with the documents above: each accession opens on sec.gov. /valuation/NBIS lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers. Then write down the lines you will hold these companies to: $37.49 billion of RPO, $35.73 billion of minimum lease payments, $20.3 billion of RPO and lease value at IREN, and the debt maturities beside them. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you wrote and tells you which line moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

The contracts are on file, and so is the debt raised against them.

Sources. Nebius Group N.V. Form 6-K: 8 September 2025 (Microsoft agreement), 0001104659-25-088312; 16 March 2026 (Meta agreement), 0001104659-26-027886 (sec.gov); 12 August 2026, Q2 results release and shareholder letter, 0001104659-26-094568; 12 August 2026, Operating and Financial Review and Q2 financial statements, 0001104659-26-094844 (sec.gov); 20 August 2026, convertible notes pricing, 0001104659-26-098924; 24 August 2026, closing, 0001104659-26-100347; 22 October 2026, Citi facility, 0001104659-26-117978 (sec.gov). Applied Digital Corporation Form 10-K for the year ended 31 May 2026, 0001144879-26-000048 (sec.gov); Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026, 0001144879-26-000059 (sec.gov); Form 8-K of 7 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1, 0001144879-26-000057. IREN Limited Form 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026, 0001878848-26-000052 (sec.gov); Form 8-K of 13 August 2026, 0001140361-26-032638; Form 8-K of 27 August 2026, Exhibit 99.1, 0001878848-26-000051; Form 8-K of 5 November 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q1 FY27 results), 0001878848-26-000065 (sec.gov); Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, 0001878848-26-000066 (sec.gov). EDGAR was checked on 9 November 2026; Nebius had not filed its third-quarter results or a results date. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, share price, price target or call remark appears on this page. Sums, differences and shares are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.