AMD has $30.3 billion of supplier commitments on file and no dollar backlog. Twelve filed lines before tomorrow's print.

Every figure below was read from AMD's own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession: the second-quarter 10-Q, the 4 August results release furnished on Form 8-K, the FY2025 10-K, and the 8-Ks, shelf registration and prospectus supplements filed since. Outlook figures are AMD's own and are labelled as company guidance. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no share prices, because none of them is filed. Sums, shares and differences are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

AMD $AMD reports its third quarter tomorrow, Tuesday 3 November, after the market close, with a call at 5 p.m. ET. The date is AMD's own: a press release of 6 October on its investor-relations site, "AMD to Report Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results". We checked EDGAR at 04:31 UTC on 2 November; AMD's newest 8-K is that of 28 September, followed only by insider-trading forms.

Here is the line most previews will skip. On 27 June AMD had $30.28 billion of unconditional purchase commitments, mostly wafers, substrates, components and cloud capacity. Six months earlier the figure was $12.17 billion. AMD files no backlog figure to set beside it. Its nearest line, remaining performance obligations on contracts longer than a year, fell from $315 million to $222 million over the same period. The 10-Q says it plainly: "We also continue to enter long-term purchase commitments in advance of demand."

So the supply side of AMD's AI bet is on file in dollars. The demand side, the OpenAI and Meta agreements, is on file in gigawatts and two warrants. If you want a forecast, wrong page. Twelve lines already filed, each with its accession and the question it sets up for tomorrow.

1. The guide: about $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million

From the results release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 4 August (accession 0000002488-26-000121):

For the third quarter of 2026, AMD expects revenue to be approximately $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million. The mid-point of the revenue range represents year-over-year growth of approximately 41% and a sequential increase of approximately 13%. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 56%.

The guide carries no GAAP margin and no segment split.

Check: revenue against $12.7–13.3 billion, then the fourth-quarter revenue guide.

2. Data Center: 58% of revenue, a 31% operating margin

The segment table in the same release (0000002488-26-000121):

(Ours: Data Center was 58.2% of revenue, up 16.3% on the quarter; its operating margin was 31.3%, against 27.7% in Q1.) The year-ago loss carries the MI308 export charge of line 11. The CFO's sentence in the release: "We expect Data Center sales to accelerate in the second half of 2026".

Check: Data Center revenue and operating income, and whether the release attributes any revenue to MI450 or Helios.

3. Unconditional commitments: $12.17 billion to $30.28 billion in six months

Note 10 of the 10-Q (0000002488-26-000123), "Total future commitments as of June 27, 2026", in $ million:

The FY2025 10-K (0000002488-26-000018) gave $12,166 million at 27 December 2025, of which $8,498 million fell in 2026. (Ours: up $18,110 million in six months, to 2.5 times the December figure.) The note says the commitments cover wafers, substrates and components, "as well as commitments for multi-year cloud compute capacity arrangements with cloud service providers". The cloud capacity can be "reduced, terminated" or placed with other customers by the providers, in which case AMD's commitment shrinks.

Beside the table, the liquidity section adds leases not yet commenced of $4.5 billion, data-centre lease guarantees with a maximum of $4.1 billion, and two items signed after 27 June: "investment commitments of up to $5.0 billion, subject to certain conditions", through fiscal 2028, and data centre leases with "aggregate future payments of $9.5 billion over lease terms of up to 16 years". The guarantees back "certain commercial partner data center lease obligations" and "may be issued in exchange for warrants".

Check: the 30 September commitment total in the 10-Q, and how much of the $17,386 million due in the second half was paid in the third quarter.

4. Inventory: $8.47 billion, 62% of it work in process

Note 3 (0000002488-26-000123): inventories of $8,468 million at 27 June against $7,920 million at year-end; raw materials $946 million, work in process $5,265 million, finished goods $2,257 million. (Ours: up $548 million; work in process is 62.2% of the total.)

The 10-Q's risk factors name the cost: if AMD overestimates demand, "it could result in excess inventory and an increase in our production costs, particularly since we have prepayment arrangements with certain suppliers."

Check: inventories in the Q3 balance sheet against $8,468 million, and any inventory charge.

5. Prepayments: $1.0 billion in the half, no balance disclosed

The 10-Q's cash-flow discussion: "a $1.0 billion increase in prepaid expenses and other assets primarily due to prepayments of supply agreements". The balance sheet shows prepaid expenses and other current assets of $2,662 million against $2,160 million, and other non-current assets of $7,904 million against $5,452 million. Neither line breaks out the supply prepayments.

Check: whether the Q3 10-Q discloses a prepaid-supply balance.

6. Backlog: no dollar figure, and $222 million of multi-year RPO

The 10-K's "Backlog" section gives no amount: "Sales are made primarily pursuant to purchase orders for current delivery or agreements covering purchases over a period of time", and some "may be revised or canceled without penalty" (0000002488-26-000018). The 10-Q says sales are typically "pursuant to individual purchase orders."

Remaining performance obligations with an original expected duration of more than one year were $222 million at 27 June, "of which $144 million is expected to be recognized in the next 12 months" (0000002488-26-000123). At year-end they were $315 million (0000002488-26-000018). The figure "does not include amounts which have an original expected duration of one year or less", so shorter orders sit outside it.

The large demand agreements are described in words, not dollars. The 10-Q: "In October 2025 and February 2026, we entered into multi-year agreements with OpenAI OpCo, LLC (OpenAI) and Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta), respectively, under which each customer intends to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD data center GPUs". The August release adds "a strategic partnership with Anthropic to deploy up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 Series GPUs in AMD Helios racks". None of the three carries a dollar value in a filing we read.

Check: whether the RPO figure moves in the Q3 10-Q, one test of whether any of those gigawatts became a multi-year contract with a price.

7. Customer concentration: no 10% customer in 2025

The 10-K (0000002488-26-000018): "No customer accounted for at least 10% of the Company's consolidated net revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024." One customer accounted for about 11% of accounts receivable at 27 December 2025. The 10-Q keeps the forward language: "we expect that a small number of customers will continue to account for a significant part of our revenue and receivables in the future".

Check: any customer named in the Q3 10-Q revenue or receivables notes, and any vendor-financing line.

8. Capex at 2.9 times the year-ago quarter; operating cash flow still larger

From the release (0000002488-26-000121), $ million:

(Ours: capex was 34.2% of operating cash flow in Q2 and 2.9 times the year-ago quarter.) Construction in progress rose to $1,148 million from $508 million at year-end, and accounts payable to $5,359 million from $2,929 million, which the 10-Q puts down to "timing of payment obligations" (0000002488-26-000123).

Check: Q3 operating cash flow against capex, and whether payables unwind.

9. $4.75 billion of new notes, closed 17 August

AMD filed an automatic shelf registration on Form S-3ASR on 13 August (0001193125-26-348013), registering debt securities. The same day came a preliminary prospectus supplement (0001193125-26-348029); the final one followed on 14 August (0001193125-26-352628). The 8-K under Items 1.01 and 2.03 (0001193125-26-354029, filed 17 August) records the close:

(Ours: $240 million of annual interest at the coupons.) Use of proceeds: "general corporate purposes, which may include the repayment of debt". The final supplement's capitalisation table puts total debt at $3,226 million actual and $7,952 million as adjusted at 27 June, with $875 million of 4.212% notes due 2026.

Check: total debt at 30 September, and whether the $875 million 2026 notes were repaid.

10. The Item 3.02 issuance: $8.2 billion in stock for World Labs

The 8-K of 28 September (0000002488-26-000182), Item 3.02, Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On 26 September AMD agreed to acquire World Labs Technologies, Inc. "for a total purchase price of approximately $8.2 billion to be paid in shares of the Company's common stock, par value $0.01 per share". The number of shares "is not known" and will be set by the volume-weighted average price over ten trading days ending two trading days before closing. The exemption is Section 4(a)(2) and/or Rule 506 of Regulation D.

The 8-K gives no reason for the deal, no closing date and no description of World Labs' business.

Check: whether the deal has closed, the share count issued, and the purchase-price allocation.

11. Export controls: MI308, MI325 and a 15% expectation

The 10-Q (0000002488-26-000123) on China: the April 2025 licence requirement "impacts our AMD Instinct MI308 products". AMD was "granted some licenses" for "certain China-based customers" and "began shipping products at the end of fiscal 2025", after "approximately $440 million of net inventory and related charges in 2025". In August 2025 US officials "expressed an expectation that the U.S. government will receive 15% of the revenue generated from licensed MI308 sales to China"; no regulation has been published. In February 2026 AMD received licences to ship MI325 to certain China-based customers; those units must be inspected in the US and "will be subject to a 25% tariff upon importation into the United States for the inspection."

The 10-K puts 2025 revenue billed to China (including Hong Kong) at $7,751 million of $34,639 million (0000002488-26-000018). (Ours: 22.4%.) The 10-K groups those sales by the customer's billing location.

Check: any MI308 or MI325 revenue, charge or licence change in the release or the 10-Q.

12. Share count: 1.63 billion, plus 320 million in warrants

Shares outstanding were 1,632 million at 27 June and 1,632,475,042 on 29 July, the 10-Q cover date; Q2 diluted shares were 1,659 million (0000002488-26-000123). AMD repurchased $221 million of stock in the half and none in Q2, and has $9.2 billion of authority left.

The warrants: OpenAI and Meta can each acquire "up to 160 million shares" at $0.01, vesting in tranches tied to "AMD Instinct GPU purchase milestones" and stock-price or performance conditions, exercisable through 5 October 2030 and 23 February 2031. "As of June 27, 2026, no warrant shares had vested or become exercisable." (Ours: 320 million shares, 19.6% of the 1,632 million outstanding.) The World Labs shares of line 10 come on top.

Check: whether any tranche vested in Q3, and the diluted share count.

What to read first tomorrow

Not the revenue line. Read the fourth-quarter guide, then wait for the 10-Q and open Note 10 and the warrant paragraph. The release will give the quarter's revenue; the 10-Q will tell you how much more it has promised to pay suppliers, and whether any of the 6-gigawatt agreements has turned into a vested tranche. Our Q2 read-back covers the print that set this guide.

Run it yourself

/filings/AMD lists the 10-Q, the 8-Ks and the August prospectus supplements. /financials/AMD and /earnings/AMD hold the statements and the filed quarterly series. /valuation/AMD lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers.

Then write down the lines you will hold AMD to: $12.7–13.3 billion of revenue (Ours), about 56% non-GAAP gross margin, $30.28 billion of commitments, $222 million of multi-year RPO, no vested warrant tranche. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you wrote and tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

AMD's purchase commitments are filed in dollars. The OpenAI and Meta agreements are filed in gigawatts and warrants. Tomorrow's print and the 10-Q that follows show how far the two have met.

Sources. AMD Form 8-K of 4 August 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q2 2026 results and Q3 outlook): accession 0000002488-26-000121 (sec.gov). Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026: 0000002488-26-000123 (sec.gov). Form 10-K for fiscal 2025: 0000002488-26-000018 (sec.gov). Form S-3ASR of 13 August 2026: 0001193125-26-348013. Prospectus supplements on Form 424B5: 0001193125-26-348029 (preliminary, 13 August) and 0001193125-26-352628 (final, 14 August). Form 8-K of 17 August 2026, Items 1.01 and 2.03: 0001193125-26-354029 (sec.gov). Form 8-K of 28 September 2026, Item 3.02: 0000002488-26-000182 (sec.gov). The report date is from AMD's investor-relations release of 6 October 2026, not an SEC filing. EDGAR was checked at 04:31 UTC on 2 November 2026. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, share price or call remark appears on this page; our arithmetic is labelled as ours. Research, not investment advice.