Microsoft has signed $364.6 billion of leases that have not started: ten times its debt, and in no liability line. How to read the note.

Every figure below was read from the companies' own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession: Microsoft's FY2026 10-K and its 10-Q for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Meta's, Alphabet's and Amazon's second- and third-quarter 10-Qs, Oracle's 10-Q for the quarter to 31 August and CoreWeave's second-quarter 10-Q and September 8-K. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no share prices, because none of them is filed. Sums, differences, multiples and "lease-adjusted debt" are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) No company files a lease-adjusted debt figure. Research, not investment advice.

Microsoft's 10-Q for the quarter to 30 September 2026 (0001193125-26-436133) carries this sentence at the end of its leases note:

As of September 30, 2026, we had additional leases, primarily for datacenters, that had not yet commenced of $364.6 billion, with some arrangements subject to certain contractual conditions being met. These leases will commence between fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2034 with lease terms of 1 year to 20 years.

On the same balance sheet, Microsoft's long-term debt is $31,090 million plus a current portion of $4,391 million. (Ours: $35.5 billion of debt; the signed leases that have not started are about 10.3 times that.) Its operating and finance lease liabilities, the leases that have started, total $27,477 million and $70,973 million. (Ours: $98.5 billion.) Three months earlier, the FY2026 10-K (0001193125-26-323660) gave the not-yet-commenced figure as $329.1 billion. (Ours: up $35.5 billion in one quarter.)

The $364.6 billion is in neither the debt line nor the lease liability line. It is a sentence in a note. Six large data-center tenants each file one, and here is how to read it.

What is a lease that has not yet commenced?

It is a lease the company has signed where the landlord has not yet handed over the asset: the data hall is still being built, the power is not yet connected, the building is not ready. The lease is a contract, so the company is committed. But it does not go on the balance sheet until it commences.

The filings say so in their own words. Alphabet's third-quarter 10-Q (0001652044-26-000084) describes "future lease payments of $130.5 billion that are not yet recorded". Oracle's 10-Q (0001193125-26-389274) says its $288 billion of additional lease commitments "were not reflected on our condensed consolidated balance sheets as of August 31, 2026 or in the maturities table above". Meta's third-quarter 10-Q (0001628280-26-066773) opens the sentence with "In addition to the lease liabilities that are included on our balance sheet".

So there are three layers of lease in every one of these filings: lease liabilities for leases that have commenced (on the balance sheet), the maturity table behind them (in the note), and leases signed but not started (one sentence, or one row, after the table).

Where do I find the note?

It is not in the balance sheet. Search the 10-Q or 10-K for "not yet commenced" or "have not commenced"; Oracle's note uses neither, so search its filing for "additional lease commitments". It sits in a different place in each filing:

(Ours: $1,339.3 billion across the six.) The dates differ by up to three months, and the six figures are not on one basis (see the next two sections). The sum is a number none of these companies filed.

Amazon is the odd one out in form. It has no sentence; the figure is a row headed "Leases not yet commenced" in the same table as "Long-term debt principal and interest", with a column for each year. That makes it the one filing where you can see the timing: $2,590 million in the last three months of 2026, $12,448 million in 2027, and $114,829 million after 2030. (Ours: about 70% of the $164.9 billion falls after 2030.)

How fast is the number moving?

By tens of billions a quarter. Read the same sentence in two consecutive filings:

Meta's June 10-Q flagged most of its increase in advance: "In July 2026, we entered into additional data center leases with lease obligations of approximately $68 billion, which are expected to commence in 2027 and 2028, with lease terms of 18 to 20 years." A lease signed after the balance sheet date can appear as a subsequent event in one filing and inside the total in the next.

The wording moves too. Meta's June sentence listed "data centers, colocations, and certain network infrastructure"; the September one lists "data centers, energy-related infrastructure, colocations, and certain network infrastructure". Alphabet's went from leases "primarily related to data centers" to "primarily related to data centers and energy infrastructure". Microsoft's latest commencement year moved from fiscal 2033 to fiscal 2034. Reading the sentence against the previous filing's sentence, word by word, is how you see what was signed.

Why is it not in debt or lease liabilities?

Two reasons, and both matter if you add it to anything.

It is conditional, sometimes. Microsoft's sentence includes "with some arrangements subject to certain contractual conditions being met". CoreWeave goes further and leaves some leases out of its figure altogether: the $35.5 billion excludes "lease arrangements, which include significant uncertainties regarding the amount of future lease payments". One of them is a single-site data center lease where CoreWeave "will make contractual rent payments based on construction costs incurred by the lessor, subject to a contractual maximum of $14.7 billion over the sixteen year term of this lease" (0001769628-26-000366). That $14.7 billion cap is outside the $35.5 billion.

It is undiscounted. CoreWeave calls its figure "estimated future undiscounted lease payments"; Alphabet's is "future lease payments". A lease liability on the balance sheet is a present value. Amazon's lease table shows the gap for leases that have started: gross lease liabilities of $139,447 million at 30 September, less imputed interest of $24,664 million, give a present value of $114,783 million (0001018724-26-000040). (Ours: imputed interest is about 18% of the gross.) The not-yet-commenced figures sit on the gross side of that line, so they are larger than the liability each lease will create when it starts.

What does it have to do with SPVs and "shadow debt"?

Some of these leases are with special-purpose vehicles that build the data center and lease it back. Alphabet's 10-Q ties the two together: "Leases with data center leasing VIEs are accounted for as finance leases", and "The maximum exposure arising from leases with VIEs is limited to the net carrying value of commenced finance lease assets, plus the undiscounted future obligations for leases that have not yet commenced" (0001652044-26-000084). CoreWeave describes an equipment lease with "a group of special-purpose entities" that it does not consolidate (0001769628-26-000366).

Our shadow-debt post maps those vehicles. This post is the note-reading step underneath it: the SPV is the landlord, and the not-yet-commenced sentence is where its lease shows up before it starts.

How do I build lease-adjusted debt?

Add four filed lines: reported debt, operating lease liabilities, finance lease liabilities, and leases not yet commenced. The sum is a reader's calculation, never a filed figure, and it mixes present values with undiscounted payments. (Ours throughout; $ millions.)

Inputs, each from the accession in the table above:

• Microsoft (0001193125-26-436133): long-term debt $31,090m plus current portion $4,391m; lease liabilities from Note 12.
• Meta (0001628280-26-066773): long-term debt, non-current $80,922m plus current $2,747m (face value $84,000m); operating lease liabilities $2,522m current plus $28,651m non-current. The 10-Q's balance sheet has no separate finance-lease liability line, so the row leaves it out.
• Amazon (0001018724-26-000040): long-term debt $173,125m plus current portion $6,827m (face value $180,887m); present value of lease liabilities from Note 4.
• Oracle (0001193125-26-389274): notes payable and other borrowings, $7,625m current plus $117,712m non-current; lease liabilities from the maturity table.
• Alphabet (0001652044-26-000084): long-term debt $125,102m plus current portion $1,016m; no commercial paper was outstanding.
• CoreWeave (0001769628-26-000366): recourse debt $6,235m and $25,170m, non-recourse debt $1,278m and $2,385m; operating lease liabilities $584m and $15,735m; finance lease liabilities $7m and $214m (current and non-current).

Two dates move under this table. Oracle's figures are at 31 August and CoreWeave's at 30 June. And CoreWeave has borrowed since: on 22 September it "completed its previously announced upsized private offering of $4.2 billion aggregate principal amount of its 2.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2033" (8-K 0001769628-26-000432), which is not in the June column.

(Ours, across the six:) reported debt $585.6 billion, lease liabilities that have commenced $329.0 billion, leases not yet commenced $1,339.3 billion. The signed-but-not-started layer is about 2.3 times the reported debt of the same six companies.

Is lease-adjusted debt a better debt number?

It is a different one. It answers "what has this company contractually agreed to pay?", which reported debt does not. It is not what the balance sheet will show: the leases enter at present value, on commencement, and some only if their conditions are met. And the capacity is built against contract books that Microsoft, Oracle and Alphabet disclose; our RPO post reads those on the same terms. Keep the four layers apart and say which one you are quoting.

The five checks, in one place

1. Search the note, not the balance sheet. "Not yet commenced" finds it in five of the six filings; Oracle calls it "additional lease commitments". Amazon's is a table row.
2. Read it against the previous filing. The amount, the commencement window and the asset list ("energy infrastructure" is new this quarter at Meta and Alphabet) all move.
3. Note what is excluded. Conditional arrangements (Microsoft) and leases with uncertain payments (CoreWeave's $14.7 billion cap) can sit outside the figure.
4. Keep gross and present value apart. The figure is undiscounted payments; lease liabilities are present values. Adding them is your arithmetic, and say so.
5. Date every column. 31 August, 30 June and 30 September are three balance sheets, and debt raised after the date is not in them.

Run it yourself

Open /filings/MSFT, go to the 10-Q for the quarter to 30 September, and search "not yet commenced": the sentence is the last paragraph of Note 12. Search the FY2026 10-K for the same words and you have the quarter's change.

In the DCF calculator, decide whether the lease layers belong in your net-debt input, and write down which of the four you used. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you wrote, so the not-yet-commenced figure is a line worth putting in the thesis. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

Reported debt tells you what has been borrowed. The not-yet-commenced sentence tells you what has been signed, and the next filing tells you how much more.

Sources. Microsoft Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026: accession 0001193125-26-436133 (sec.gov); FY2026 Form 10-K: 0001193125-26-323660 (sec.gov). Meta Platforms, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026: 0001628280-26-066773 (sec.gov); Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026: 0001628280-26-050705 (sec.gov). Oracle Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026: 0001193125-26-389274 (sec.gov). Alphabet Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026: 0001652044-26-000084 (sec.gov); Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026: 0001652044-26-000071 (sec.gov). Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026: 0001018724-26-000040 (sec.gov); Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026: 0001018724-26-000026 (sec.gov). CoreWeave, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026: 0001769628-26-000366 (sec.gov); Form 8-K of 22 September 2026 (convertible notes): 0001769628-26-000432 (sec.gov). EDGAR was checked at 04:30 UTC on 1 November 2026; Oracle's and CoreWeave's next 10-Qs had not been filed. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, share price, price target or call remark appears on this page. Sums, differences, multiples and lease-adjusted debt are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.