SAP's cloud backlog grew faster than its cloud revenue. Twelve filed lines before the 21 October print.

Every figure below was read from SAP's own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession: the quarterly statements furnished on Form 6-K for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, the Half-Year Report 2026 and the FY2024 and FY2025 annual reports on Form 20-F. Outlook figures are SAP's own and are labelled as company guidance. We show no analyst estimates and no consensus, because none of them is filed. Sequential changes, shares and implied second-half figures are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

SAP $SAP reports its third quarter on Wednesday 21 October. That date is filed: the financial calendar in the Half-Year Report 2026, furnished on Form 6-K on 28 July (accession 0001104659-26-087251), lists "October 21, 2026 Third-quarter 2026 earnings release, conference call for financial analysts and investors." No SAP 6-K has been filed since; we checked EDGAR at 04:30 UTC on 20 October.

Here is the problem with reading SAP's headline. The number it leads with, current cloud backlog, only covers the next twelve months. At the end of 2025 SAP told investors, in its 20-F, that the backlog beyond those twelve months was growing faster, "partially due to large transformational deals with high cloud revenue ramps in outer years". Then, in 2026, the figure that measured that longer backlog stopped appearing in the quarterly statements. So did the table that showed how much of the order book came from very large deals.

If you want a forecast, wrong page. Twelve lines already on file, each with its accession and the question it sets up for Wednesday.

1. Cloud revenue: 24% at constant currencies, down from 27%

From the Q2 Quarterly Statement, Exhibit 99.1 to the 6-K of 28 July (0001104659-26-087251):

In Q1 cloud revenue was €5,962 million, up 27% at constant currencies (0001104659-26-049650), and SAP said then that it had been "positively impacted by several quarter-specific effects, contributing to an expected deceleration of cloud revenue growth in the second quarter." The comparison base for Wednesday is Q3 2025: cloud revenue of €5,290 million, up 22% and up 27% at constant currencies (0001104659-25-102307).

Check: the constant-currency cloud growth rate against Q2's 24%.

2. The currency table points the other way for Q3

The Q2 statement carries a table headed "Currency Impact Assuming June 30, 2026 Rates Apply for 2026". For Q3 2026 it gives +1.5pp on cloud revenue growth and +1.0pp on cloud and software revenue growth; for the full year, −1.5pp on both (0001104659-26-087251). The guidance itself is at constant currencies, "including an average exchange rate of 1.13 USD per EUR"; the table "includes an exchange rate of 1.14 USD per EUR".

At 30 June rates, Q3 reported growth would sit above the constant-currency rate.

Check: which of the two growth rates leads the release, and the gap between them.

3. Current cloud backlog: 26%, and up 4.5% in the quarter

Current cloud backlog (CCB) is defined in the Half-Year Report as "contractually committed cloud revenue that we expect to recognize over the upcoming 12 months". The quarterly series:

The Q2 statement adds that CCB growth "benefited from the first-time inclusion of Reltio, which contributed less than 1 percentage point to the constant currencies growth rate." (Ours: CCB rose 4.5% from Q1 to Q2, against 4.4% from Q2 to Q3 2025, 18,052 to 18,839.) The outlook says "Constant currencies current cloud backlog growth to slightly decelerate (2025: 25%)."

In Q2 the twelve-month backlog grew two points faster than cloud revenue at constant currencies (26% against 24%). In Q1 it was the other way round (25% against 27%). (Ours.)

Check: the CCB growth rate against 26%, and the Reltio effect if it is stated again.

4. Total cloud backlog has not appeared in 2026

The Q4 2025 statement (0001104659-26-009465): "As of December 31, total cloud backlog was up 22% to €77.29 billion and up 30% at constant currencies." The FY2025 20-F (0001104659-26-020058) explains the gap with CCB in its Executive Board's Assessment: despite "a greater-than-expected deceleration of the cloud backlog growth rate to 25% at constant currencies", total cloud backlog rose "30% at constant currencies to €77 billion, partially due to large transformational deals with high cloud revenue ramps in outer years." A year earlier it was €63.29 billion (FY2024 20-F, 0001104659-25-017815).

The phrase "total cloud backlog" does not occur in the Q1 2026 statement, the Q2 2026 statement or the Half-Year Report. We searched all three.

Check: whether total cloud backlog comes back, and if not, whether anything replaces it.

5. The order-size table was dropped too

The Q4 2025 statement's multi-quarter table had a line called "Share of cloud orders greater than €5 million based on total cloud order entry volume". It ran 54%, 53%, 63% and 71% through the four quarters of 2025, 65% for the year (63% in 2024). Orders below €1 million were 10% of Q4 2025 and 14% of the year (0001104659-26-009465). The same table gave quarter-end employees.

Neither 2026 quarterly statement has that table or any order-entry line. So the two disclosures that would show whether the backlog leans on a few very large, slow-ramping contracts both stopped in the year after total cloud backlog had grown five points faster than CCB (30% against 25% at constant currencies). (Ours.)

Check: any order-entry figure in the Q3 statement.

6. The outlook, and the sentence that changed in April

SAP's FY2026 guidance, as restated in the Q2 statement (0001104659-26-087251), all at constant currencies except free cash flow:

The operating-profit cut reflects "the dilutive impact of the Dremio and Prior Labs acquisitions closed in July, which is projected to be in excess of €100 million."

H1 cloud revenue at constant currencies was €12,708 million (segment table, same exhibit). (Ours: the guide implies €13.09–13.49 billion for the second half at constant currencies. Against the €10,900 million SAP reported for Q3 and Q4 2025, €5,290 million plus €5,610 million, that is growth of 20.1% to 23.8%.)

The total-revenue sentence changed between two filings. Q4 2025 statement: "Constant currency total revenue growth to accelerate through 2027." Q1 2026 statement (0001104659-26-049650): "to remain at similar levels as in 2025 and to accelerate in 2027. The previous outlook assumed constant currencies total revenue growth to accelerate through 2027." The Q2 statement keeps the Q1 wording and gives the 2025 level: 10.6%.

Precedent: in Q3 2025 SAP guided FY2025 cloud revenue "towards the lower end of the outlook range of €21.6 – 21.9 billion at constant currencies" (0001104659-25-102307).

Check: whether the cloud range is restated as is, narrowed, or placed within the range.

7. The Middle East assumption is written into the guide

From the Q2 statement: "SAP's financial outlook for the full-year 2026 is based on the assumption of a near-term de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East." The Half-Year Report adds that "current guidance assumes an improvement in conditions during the second half of the year. Our focus for the remainder of 2026 remains on converting delayed pipeline opportunities", and, in the risk section, "A prolonged or expanded conflict, particularly beyond 2026, could impact SAP's pipeline and bookings".

Check: whether the assumption is repeated, and what the release says about the "delayed pipeline opportunities".

8. AI is counted in orders, not in revenue

The FY2025 20-F: "more than two-thirds of our cloud order entry containing SAP Business AI in the fourth quarter of 2025". The FY2024 20-F: "Around 50% of our cloud order entries in the fourth quarter 2024 included SAP Business AI." Both are shares of orders that contain an AI component. Neither filing, nor any 2026 statement, gives an AI revenue figure. The Half-Year Report states a product target: "We expect to deploy a total of more than 400 AI agents by the end of 2026."

Check: whether any AI figure in the Q3 release is revenue, backlog or orders, and which.

9. Six new words in the risk factors

The product-strategy risk factor in the FY2024 20-F lists the risk that customers "might consider other competing solutions in the market, or that our strategy might not match customers' expectations and needs". The FY2025 20-F inserts a clause between the two: "or that they may leverage AI to produce their own solutions". The legal risk factor also gains "data access and other antitrust-based claims, for example alleged lock-in effects", and the sentence "Such allegations, for example, often arise from competitors and third parties claiming broad access rights to SAP data."

The Half-Year Report: "as at June 30, 2026, we see no material change relative to our 2025 risk assessment".

Check: the risk wording in the Q3 statement, if it carries any.

10. Support revenue falls, and SAP says it will fall faster

Software support was €2,439 million in Q2, down 8% (down 7% at constant currencies), and still 24.7% of total revenue (Ours: 2,439 ÷ 9,878). Software licences were €131 million, down 32%. For the half, support fell 9% (6% at constant currencies). The outlook: "Constant currencies software support revenue decline rate to accelerate in the coming years as a consequence of an acceleration of customers transforming to the cloud." SAP attributes the decline to its own cloud migration, not to AI.

Check: the support decline rate against Q2's −7% at constant currencies.

11. Margin, people and the cost of the cloud

IFRS cloud gross margin was 74.3% in Q2, against 74.7% a year earlier (0001104659-26-087251). IFRS operating margin was 26.8% against 27.2%.

Full-time equivalents were 112,019 at 30 June against 108,929 a year earlier, of which 503 came with acquisitions; sales and marketing FTEs were 27,382 against 26,467. (Ours: +2.8% and +3.5%.) At the end of 2025 the headcount was 110,650 (0001104659-26-009465). The FY2025 20-F gives the ratio of sales and marketing expense to revenue as 24.1%, down from 26.6%.

Check: cloud gross margin against 74.3%, and the FTE count against 112,019.

12. Buybacks paused in Q2, debt went up, and 2027 reporting changes

The €10 billion programme runs to 31 December 2027. The Q1 statement: "As of April 1, 2026, the first tranche of the program was completed. By that time, SAP had repurchased 16,280,097 shares at an average price of €161.16". The Q2 statement gives the same 16,280,097 shares and "approximately €2.6 billion" as of 30 June. (Ours: no shares were bought under the programme in Q2.)

H1 free cash flow was €6,250 million. Treasury share purchases were €2,600 million and dividends €2,883 million (Ours: together 87.7% of free cash flow). Financial debt was €8,550 million at 30 June against €6,150 million at year-end, (Half-Year Report), after a €3.5 billion Eurobond completed on 28 May (Q2 statement). The Q2 statement also says that from 2027 SAP will exclude "foreign currency-related effects" and "interest related to taxes" from its non-IFRS results, citing IFRS 18.

Check: whether a second tranche has started, and the share count at 30 September.

What to read first on Wednesday

Not cloud revenue. Read the CCB growth rate at constant currencies and set it beside cloud revenue growth on the same basis. Then search the statement for "total cloud backlog" and "Share of cloud orders". If neither comes back, the twelve-month figure is the only backlog SAP is filing. Then the outlook paragraph: the cloud range, and the Middle East sentence.

The ten-company view, with SAP beside ServiceNow, Salesforce, Workday and the rest, is our 5 October note on AI and SaaS filings. If you are comparing SAP's quarters with US software companies on different fiscal calendars, the 14-week quarter explains how to line them up. SAP reports on calendar quarters.

Run it yourself

Start with the documents. /filings/SAP lists SAP's 6-Ks and 20-Fs; open the Q2 statement and the Q4 2025 statement side by side and search both for "Share of cloud orders". That is line 5, and it takes a minute. /financials/SAP holds the standardised statements, and /earnings/SAP carries the quarterly series.

Then write down what you expect before Wednesday. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you already wrote — CCB at 26%, cloud at 24%, the €25.8–26.2 billion range, support at −7% — and tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

SAP's twelve-month backlog is filed every quarter. Whether the rest of it is filed on Wednesday is the first line to read.

Sources. SAP SE Form 6-K of 28 July 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Quarterly Statement Q2 2026) and Exhibit 99.2 (Half-Year Report 2026): accession 0001104659-26-087251 (sec.gov). Form 6-K of 28 April 2026, Quarterly Statement Q1 2026: 0001104659-26-049650 (sec.gov). Form 6-K of 3 February 2026, Quarterly Statement Q4 2025: 0001104659-26-009465 (sec.gov). Form 6-K of 27 October 2025, Quarterly Statement Q3 2025: 0001104659-25-102307. FY2025 Form 20-F: 0001104659-26-020058 (sec.gov). FY2024 Form 20-F: 0001104659-25-017815. The report date is SAP's own, from the financial calendar in the Half-Year Report; no later 6-K was on EDGAR at 04:30 UTC on 20 October. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, price target or call remark appears on this page. Sequential changes, shares, sums and implied second-half figures are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.