Fair-value tools compared on what matters · free · no sign-up
Looking for a fair-value tool that shows its work?
Most fair-value sites give you one number and no way to check it. Before you switch tools, here is what to look for in any stock valuation tool — and what EvidInvest actually does on each point. Judge us on the same rows.
No account, no card, no trial.
Nine things to check in any valuation tool
Take this list to whatever you use today. The right-hand column is what EvidInvest does — product facts, nothing else.
| What to check | The question to ask | EvidInvest |
|---|---|---|
| Citations to the filing | Can you click from any number to the 10-K or 10-Q line it came from? If not, you cannot verify it. | Every input — revenue, diluted EPS, free cash flow, shares — names the form, period and filing date and links to the document on sec.gov. |
| A range, not one number | Does the tool show disagreement between methods, or hide it behind a single “fair value”? | Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of seven methods, with a count of how many agree and a confidence label. |
| Methods shown, with weights | Which models were used, what did each produce, how much was each trusted? | Every ticker page lists them: DCF, P/E vs sector, Growth-trajectory DCF, P/B vs sector, Graham Number, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, Earnings Power Value — each with its estimate, its distance from the price and its sector weight. |
| Free without sign-up | Is the number behind a trial, a paywall or an email gate? | The whole site is free and public. No account, no card, no trial. An account is optional and adds watchlists and alerts. |
| Data source | Filed statements, or a vendor’s estimates and adjusted figures? | Statements back to 1985 — 30+ years for about 6,000 US companies; filing-linked (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F, 40-F) from 2009 on. Prices from Cboe, delayed 15 minutes and labelled as such. No analyst estimates. |
| Your own assumptions | Can you change the growth and discount rates and see the effect? | A free DCF calculator with every input in view, and a reverse DCF that shows the growth the current price already implies. |
| Programmatic access | Can you get the same data into a script or an AI agent? | 48 tools over REST and MCP, same credits as the site, free calls to start on the first key. No subscription. |
| Thesis monitoring | Does the tool read new filings against the reason you own the stock? | Thesis Monitor checks each new 10-Q and 10-K against your written thesis and flags what changed, with the passage cited. Draws on credits. |
| Buy / sell calls | Does it tell you what to do? Then it is a tip sheet, not a valuation tool. | None. EvidInvest never says buy or sell. Research, not investment advice. |
What “shows its work” looks like
Apple, from its latest filing: the range, each method’s number and weight, and the statement lines they were fed — the same block on every ticker page.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Price $319.70 · Cboe, 15-min delayed
EvidInvest range $77 – $157 (base $112)
- Methods vs. price:
- 7 of 7 land below the price
- Confidence:
- low (wide spread)
Source: 10-K FY2025, filed 2025-10-31
See how we got this number →How each method got its number
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Graham Number Low weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $31 | -90% | Low weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $55 | -83% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $99 | -69% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $112 | -65% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $128 | -60% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $187 | -42% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $222 | -31% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
P/B vs sector Low weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. Sector P/B benchmark unavailable | No estimate | Low weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
The filing behind these numbers
Apple Inc.- Revenue
- $416.2B
- Diluted EPS
- $7.46
- Free cash flow
- $98.8B
- operating cash flow − capital expenditure
- Diluted shares
- 15.00B
- weighted average
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-09-27 · filed 2025-10-31 · accession 0000320193-25-000079
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q3 FY2026 (filed 2026-07-31).
Open this filing on sec.govLive data, refreshed nightly. Open the full AAPL page to see the same numbers with the detailed models underneath.
Try it on a stock you already follow
Compare our range and inputs with what your current tool shows. The page is public.
Or start from a list: screen by valuation, then run fair value on the results.
Before you switch
- Do I have to move anything?
- No. There is nothing to import or set up. Look up a ticker; if the page is useful, come back. An account only adds watchlists and alerts.
- Why do your numbers differ from my current tool?
- Usually because of the inputs: which EPS, which share count, which discount rate. Ours are on the page with the filing they came from, so you can find the difference instead of guessing.
- What does it cost?
- The site is free. Written analyses and thesis monitoring draw on credits — packs from $10 that never expire, no subscription.
EvidInvest never says buy or sell. It shows what the filings say and how each number was computed. Research, not investment advice.